TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13115900
Played Sep 12Finished
Jakub Michalski
Home
2.90
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1113611711––––
Jan Orszulik
Away
1.32
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:23 and never touched — 70.4% is still 70.4%
Graded at full timeJan Orszulik to win
70.4%
70.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
59 points played in total.
Set by set
1113611711––––
H2H Jakub Michalski 3–4 Jan Orszulik Jakub Michalski has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Michalski beat Orszulik 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:23What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.32 (69%)
Orszulik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Michalski 1157 vs Orszulik 1371
Orszulik
Correct
both rated, 214 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Michalski 40% vs Orszulik 60%
Orszulik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Michalski 30% vs Orszulik 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Michalski -1 · Orszulik +3
Orszulik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Orszulik) · live re-read · sealed at 70% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Orszulik form (60%) is below what odds imply (76%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMichalski 2.90 / Orszulik 1.32
Signal prob.28% / 72%
Edge (Orszulik)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13115900
Michalski2.90
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog29% won 83 of 290
Down 0–1, comes back12% 22 of 190
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 130
Orszulik1.32
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 37 of 66
Up 2–0, closes it90% 26 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it81% 34 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeMichalski3wins
AwayOrszulik4wins
2 of 7 to a deciderOrszulik leads 4–3, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMichalski66.7%2 of 3
AwayOrszulik75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Michalski3Orszulik4n = 7Orszulik took 4 of 7
S2Michalski3Orszulik4n = 7Orszulik took 4 of 7
S3Michalski3Orszulik4n = 7Orszulik took 4 of 7
S4Michalski2Orszulik2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away229%
These 7 meetings
MetricMichalskiOrszulikM − OBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match35.438.1−2.7per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMichalskiOrszulikBasisWin rate · lifetime409 / 1061 vs 109 / 23738.6%46%409 / 1061 vs 109 / 237Avg sets wonper match1.61.9per matchAvg pointsper match33.735.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OrszulikMichalski 2.90/Orszulik 1.32
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
71.9%
Orszulik · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Orszulik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WSep 11 · 19:30J. Michalski—61611113J. Orszulik—1114871
WAug 8 · 04:40J. Michalski—1111113J. Orszulik—7640
WAug 7 · 22:40J. Michalski—191196113J. Orszulik—179111162
LJul 11 · 03:55J. Michalski—981151J. Orszulik—11115113
LJul 10 · 21:55J. Michalski—6640J. Orszulik—1111113
LApr 18 · 03:55J. Michalski—11841552J. Orszulik—5111113113
LApr 17 · 21:55J. Michalski—10670J. Orszulik—1211113
J. Michalski10
LSep 12 · 03:05R. Szymik1.211111113J. Michalski3.706670WSep 12 · 02:20J. Badura1.4177111182J. Michalski2.70111169113LSep 12 · 24:20J. Michalski2.376810R. Wiza1.481111113WSep 11 · 22:40J. Michalski1.751111113A. Szurgot1.956660LSep 11 · 21:05R. Szymik1.211111113J. Michalski3.705740LSep 11 · 20:20R. Wiza1.5713118113J. Michalski2.251141151WSep 11 · 19:30J. Michalski2.9061611113J. Orszulik1.321114871WSep 11 · 18:20J. Michalski3.1011117113J. Badura1.33471141LSep 5 · 05:05L. Bernacki1.5381111113J. Michalski2.38119631LSep 5 · 03:55J. Michalski2.2011960D. Fira1.571311113
J. Orszulik10
LSep 12 · 02:45R. Wiza2.20912513113J. Orszulik1.551110111132WSep 11 · 23:55R. Szymik1.855540J. Orszulik1.801111113WSep 11 · 23:05R. Wiza2.203860J. Orszulik1.551111113WSep 11 · 21:55J. Orszulik1.301181110133A. Szurgot3.20411912112LSep 11 · 20:45J. Badura1.881112113J. Orszulik1.8281060LSep 11 · 19:30J. Michalski2.9061611113J. Orszulik1.321114871LSep 11 · 17:55R. Szymik1.541111113J. Orszulik2.258880WAug 14 · 02:00J. Orszulik2.1513116143J. Pelka1.6011611121LAug 14 · 24:45J. Orszulik4.0575111172M. Tkocz1.19111169113LAug 13 · 23:35J. Orszulik2.4591111732P. Gumulinski1.47119911113
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