TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13110574
Played Sep 12Finished
Jakub Michalski
Home
1.60
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1210115118––––
Andrzej Szurgot
Away
2.11
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:43 and never touched — 62.7% is still 62.7%
Graded at full timeAndrzej Szurgot to win
62.7%
62.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
57 points played in total.
Set by set
1210115118––––
H2H Jakub Michalski 2–1 Andrzej Szurgot Andrzej Szurgot has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Michalski beat Szurgot 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:43What took a side0 for · 4 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.60 (57%)
Michalski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Michalski 1143 vs Szurgot 1106
Michalski
Correct
both rated, 37 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Michalski 40% vs Szurgot 20%
Michalski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Michalski 40% vs Szurgot 20%
Michalski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Michalski -1 · Szurgot -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Michalski) · live re-read · sealed at 37% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Szurgot form (20%) is below what odds imply (47%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMichalski 1.60 / Szurgot 2.11
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Michalski)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13110574
Michalski1.60
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite45% won 37 of 82
Up 2–0, closes it88% 21 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it72% 31 of 43
Szurgot2.11
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog18% won 11 of 62
Down 0–1, comes back15% 7 of 46
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeMichalski2wins
AwaySzurgot1wins
1 of 3 to a deciderMichalski leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Michalski2Szurgot1n = 3Michalski took 2 of 3
S2Michalski2Szurgot1n = 3Michalski took 2 of 3
S3Michalski3Szurgot0n = 3Michalski took 3 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricMichalskiSzurgotM − SBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match37.033.0+4.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMichalskiSzurgotBasisWin rate · lifetime409 / 1063 vs 15 / 7938.5%19%409 / 1063 vs 15 / 79Avg sets wonper match1.61.1per matchAvg pointsper match33.730.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MichalskiMichalski 1.60/Szurgot 2.11
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.7%
Michalski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Michalski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 11 · 22:40J. Michalski—1111113A. Szurgot—6660
WAug 15 · 23:30J. Michalski—81111123A. Szurgot—1155101
LAug 15 · 19:10J. Michalski—11511362A. Szurgot—811911113
J. Michalski10
LSep 12 · 03:05R. Szymik1.211111113J. Michalski3.706670WSep 12 · 02:20J. Badura1.4177111182J. Michalski2.70111169113LSep 12 · 01:30J. Michalski2.9011670J. Orszulik1.321311113LSep 12 · 24:20J. Michalski2.376810R. Wiza1.481111113WSep 11 · 22:40J. Michalski1.751111113A. Szurgot1.956660LSep 11 · 21:05R. Szymik1.211111113J. Michalski3.705740LSep 11 · 20:20R. Wiza1.5713118113J. Michalski2.251141151WSep 11 · 19:30J. Michalski2.9061611113J. Orszulik1.321114871WSep 11 · 18:20J. Michalski3.1011117113J. Badura1.33471141LSep 5 · 05:05L. Bernacki1.5381111113J. Michalski2.38119631
A. Szurgot10
LSep 12 · 03:55J. Orszulik1.2481111113A. Szurgot3.40115151LSep 12 · 01:55R. Szymik1.1651111113A. Szurgot4.40116791WSep 12 · 01:10R. Wiza1.3511115642A. Szurgot2.75731111113LSep 11 · 23:30J. Badura1.277121211113A. Szurgot3.25111014752LSep 11 · 22:40J. Michalski1.751111113A. Szurgot1.956660LSep 11 · 21:55J. Orszulik1.301181110133A. Szurgot3.20411912112LSep 11 · 19:55R. Szymik1.141211113A. Szurgot4.5510420LSep 11 · 19:10J. Badura1.221112133A. Szurgot3.60610110WSep 11 · 17:30R. Wiza1.4081181172A. Szurgot2.65118116113LSep 6 · 04:40A. Szurgot4.802460P. Polok1.131111113
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