TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13134361
Played Sep 15Finished
Ivan Heuman
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1012711611––––
David Stusek
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:48 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeDavid Stusek to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIvan Heuman above · David Stusek below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 57 set 3, 6-11 — our read held David Stusek at 57.7%
57 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Heuman 1–2 David Stusek Ivan Heuman has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:48What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Stusek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Heuman 1603 vs Stusek 1561
Heuman
Wrong
both rated, 42 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Heuman 80% vs Stusek 40%
Heuman
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Heuman 50% vs Stusek 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Heuman -1 · Stusek -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Stusek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stusek form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHeuman 2.20 / Stusek 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Stusek)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13134361
Heuman2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog47% won 55 of 118
Down 0–1, comes back33% 17 of 52
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 20
Stusek1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 25 of 41
Up 2–0, closes it100% 12 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it76% 16 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeHeuman1wins
AwayStusek2wins
2 of 3 to a deciderStusek leads 2–1, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHeumann = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayStusek66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Heuman0Stusek3n = 3Stusek took 3 of 3
S2Heuman2Stusek1n = 3Heuman took 2 of 3
S3Heuman2Stusek1n = 3Heuman took 2 of 3
S4Heuman1Stusek2n = 3Stusek took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricHeumanStusekH − SBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set03−3of 3Avg pointsper match42.740.7+2.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHeumanStusekBasisWin rate · lifetime205 / 418 vs 89 / 18249%48.9%205 / 418 vs 89 / 182Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.640.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StusekHeuman 2.20/Stusek 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.7%
Stusek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Stusek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LJul 31 · 19:40I. Heuman34711971D. Stusek3711411113
LMay 11 · 18:10I. Heuman46107111172D. Stusek47121185113
WFeb 20 · 18:40I. Heuman48611119113D. Stusek3811661142
I. Heuman10
LSep 15 · 20:40I. Heuman1.6310311101A. Kanak2.1512119123WSep 15 · 20:10A. Kanak2.00581141I. Heuman1.7311118113LSep 15 · 17:40J. Travnicek1.67124912113I. Heuman2.101011111092WSep 14 · 21:10I. Heuman2.00111111123D. Vitasek1.739913101WSep 14 · 20:10A. Kanak1.831013100I. Heuman1.831215123WSep 14 · 19:10I. Heuman1.831111113D. Vitasek1.837680WSep 14 · 17:40J. Travnicek1.61991291I. Heuman2.20111110113LSep 12 · 20:39I. Heuman1.55114591J. Palat2.3041111113LSep 12 · 20:10I. Heuman1.61511751P. Marsalek2.2011611113WSep 12 · 18:40J. Palat2.20661161I. Heuman1.6111117113
D. Stusek10
WSep 15 · 19:40J. Travnicek1.83961171D. Stusek1.8311116113LSep 15 · 18:10D. Stusek1.80117691A. Kanak1.9141111113LSep 6 · 09:25J. Gembala1.611111113D. Stusek2.206970WSep 6 · 08:10F. Chaloupka1.911111711112D. Stusek1.80913119133LSep 6 · 07:10D. Stusek2.381210961J. Gembala1.53101211113WSep 6 · 05:40B. Moravec1.806950D. Stusek1.911111113LAug 26 · 17:03D. Stusek3.008760F. Chaloupka1.361111113WAug 26 · 16:15D. Stusek2.25121147113B. Mrowetz1.57109111182LAug 26 · 14:45J. Gembala1.831111113D. Stusek1.837860LAug 26 · 14:15F. Chaloupka1.831111159133D. Stusek1.83781711112
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