TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13131421
Played Sep 14Finished
Ivan Heuman
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11911911131210––
Daniel Vitasek
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:51 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeIvan Heuman to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIvan Heuman above · Daniel Vitasek below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 86 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Ivan Heuman at 54.0%
86 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Heuman 22–19 Daniel Vitasek Daniel Vitasek has won 19 of their 41 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Heuman beat Vitasek 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:51What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Vitasek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
22-19 in 41
Heuman
Correct
gap of 3 in 41, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Heuman 1614 vs Vitasek 1578
Heuman
Correct
both rated, 36 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Heuman 60% vs Vitasek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Heuman 50% vs Vitasek 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Heuman +3 · Vitasek +1
Heuman
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Vitasek) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHeuman 2.00 / Vitasek 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Vitasek)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13131421
Heuman2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog46% won 53 of 116
Down 0–1, comes back33% 17 of 52
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 20
Vitasek1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite50% won 63 of 126
Up 2–0, closes it100% 34 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it74% 49 of 66
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHeuman7wins
AwayVitasek3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderHeuman leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHeuman75%6 of 8
AwayVitasekn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Heuman8Vitasek2n = 10Heuman took 8 of 10
S2Heuman6Vitasek4n = 10Heuman took 6 of 10
S3Heuman4Vitasek6n = 10Vitasek took 6 of 10
S4Heuman4Vitasek5n = 9Vitasek took 5 of 9
S5Heuman3Vitasek1n = 4Heuman took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHeumanVitasekH − VBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match42.838.7+4.1per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHeumanVitasekBasisWin rate · lifetime205 / 417 vs 299 / 61549.2%48.6%205 / 417 vs 299 / 615Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.638.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VitasekHeuman 2.00/Vitasek 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Vitasek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Heuman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 14 · 21:10I. Heuman45111111123D. Vitasek419913101
WSep 14 · 19:10I. Heuman331111113D. Vitasek217680
LSep 12 · 18:10I. Heuman52157711122D. Vitasek521311113143
WSep 12 · 14:10I. Heuman45118114113D. Vitasek3541151142
LAug 11 · 18:40I. Heuman351192131D. Vitasek4361111153
WAug 10 · 17:45I. Heuman529111110113D. Vitasek4211861252
LAug 8 · 17:45I. Heuman401111991D. Vitasek4013511113
WJul 31 · 20:39I. Heuman4312119113D. Vitasek351071171
WJul 31 · 18:10I. Heuman4111116583D. Vitasek4296111152
WJul 12 · 21:15I. Heuman4212811113D. Vitasek361011781
I. Heuman10
WSep 14 · 20:10A. Kanak1.831013100I. Heuman1.831215123WSep 14 · 19:10I. Heuman1.831111113D. Vitasek1.837680WSep 14 · 17:40J. Travnicek1.61991291I. Heuman2.20111110113LSep 12 · 20:39I. Heuman1.55114591J. Palat2.3041111113LSep 12 · 20:10I. Heuman1.61511751P. Marsalek2.2011611113WSep 12 · 18:40J. Palat2.20661161I. Heuman1.6111117113LSep 12 · 18:10D. Vitasek1.831311113143I. Heuman1.83157711122LSep 12 · 17:20I. Heuman1.91119381E. Precek1.8071111113WSep 12 · 16:10I. Heuman2.101111119113E. Precek1.6759131182LSep 12 · 14:40D. Skulina1.6712141111113I. Heuman2.1014169932
D. Vitasek10
WSep 14 · 19:40J. Travnicek2.00211591D. Vitasek1.7311311113LSep 14 · 19:10I. Heuman1.831111113D. Vitasek1.837680WSep 14 · 18:10D. Vitasek1.831191112113A. Kanak1.8341161462LSep 12 · 21:08P. Marsalek1.8371111113D. Vitasek1.83115611WSep 12 · 19:40J. Palat2.20611111072D. Vitasek1.61118412113LSep 12 · 19:10P. Marsalek1.91111114113D. Vitasek1.801391291WSep 12 · 18:10D. Vitasek1.831311113143I. Heuman1.83157711122WSep 12 · 16:50D. Vitasek—1111133D. Skulina—98110WSep 12 · 15:40D. Skulina1.501111781D. Vitasek2.5061311113LSep 12 · 15:10E. Precek1.831412113D. Vitasek1.83121090
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