TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13121972
Played Sep 12Finished
Patrik Marsalek
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
711115116111––
Daniel Vitasek
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
How it is goingPatrik Marsalek above · Daniel Vitasek below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-1
Point 63 set 4, 11-1
63 points played in total.
H2H Patrik Marsalek 5–7 Daniel Vitasek Patrik Marsalek has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Marsalek beat Vitasek 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Vitasek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vitasek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarsalek 1.83 / Vitasek 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Vitasek)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13121972
Marsalek1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Vitasek1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMarsalek4wins
AwayVitasek6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderVitasek leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarsalek100%3 of 3
AwayVitasek85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marsalek3Vitasek7n = 10Vitasek took 7 of 10
S2Marsalek7Vitasek3n = 10Marsalek took 7 of 10
S3Marsalek6Vitasek4n = 10Marsalek took 6 of 10
S4Marsalek2Vitasek4n = 6Vitasek took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMarsalekVitasekM − VBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match34.835.6−0.8per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarsalekVitasekBasisWin rate · lifetime53 / 113 vs 297 / 61046.9%48.7%53 / 113 vs 297 / 610Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VitasekMarsalek 1.83/Vitasek 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Vitasek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Marsalek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 12 · 19:10P. Marsalek47111114113D. Vitasek431391291
LAug 26 · 20:10P. Marsalek35715851D. Vitasek46111311113
LAug 20 · 20:35P. Marsalek2019100D. Vitasek341111123
WAug 20 · 18:10P. Marsalek331111113D. Vitasek235990
LAug 10 · 20:50P. Marsalek4891171292D. Vitasek521191110113
WAug 10 · 18:45P. Marsalek341211113D. Vitasek2210570
LAug 3 · 21:05P. Marsalek33871171D. Vitasek3911116113
WAug 3 · 20:10P. Marsalek331111113D. Vitasek177820
LMay 8 · 08:15P. Marsalek31811571D. Vitasek4011711113
LApr 16 · 21:15P. Marsalek34881171D. Vitasek4011117113
P. Marsalek10
WSep 12 · 20:10I. Heuman1.61511751P. Marsalek2.2011611113WSep 12 · 19:10P. Marsalek1.91111114113D. Vitasek1.801391291WSep 12 · 17:40J. Palat1.83311971P. Marsalek1.8311711113LSep 10 · 20:48P. Marsalek1.8010760I. Heuman1.911211113LSep 10 · 20:15A. Kanak1.73118711113P. Marsalek2.0081111792WSep 10 · 19:15P. Marsalek2.2011711113I. Heuman1.61611891LSep 10 · 17:45J. Travnicek1.6712114143P. Marsalek2.1010511121LSep 6 · 20:48P. Marsalek2.0058100D. Skulina1.731111123LSep 6 · 20:10J. Travnicek1.731191112113P. Marsalek2.0091181462LSep 6 · 19:10P. Marsalek2.20891131M. Macurak1.6111118113
D. Vitasek10
WSep 12 · 19:40J. Palat2.20611111072D. Vitasek1.61118412113LSep 12 · 19:10P. Marsalek1.91111114113D. Vitasek1.801391291WSep 12 · 18:10D. Vitasek1.831311113143I. Heuman1.83157711122WSep 12 · 16:50D. Vitasek—1111133D. Skulina—98110WSep 12 · 15:40D. Skulina1.501111781D. Vitasek2.5061311113LSep 12 · 15:10E. Precek1.831412113D. Vitasek1.83121090LSep 12 · 14:10D. Vitasek1.8341151142I. Heuman1.83118114113WAug 30 · 09:20K. Kleprlik1.837111381D. Vitasek1.8311815113WAug 30 · 07:45E. Precek1.8011613111D. Vitasek1.9181115133WAug 30 · 07:15L. Dzida2.00991151D. Vitasek1.7311113113
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