TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13109556
Played Sep 10Finished
Patrik Marsalek
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116711118119––
Ivan Heuman
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:43 and never touched — 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timeIvan Heuman to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPatrik Marsalek above · Ivan Heuman below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 74 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Ivan Heuman at 60.5%
74 points played in total.
H2H Patrik Marsalek 1–2 Ivan Heuman Patrik Marsalek has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:43What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Heuman
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marsalek 1498 vs Heuman 1556
Heuman
Wrong
both rated, 58 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marsalek 20% vs Heuman 60%
Heuman
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marsalek 20% vs Heuman 50%
Heuman
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Marsalek -4 · Heuman +1
Marsalek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Heuman)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marsalek form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarsalek 2.20 / Heuman 1.61
Signal prob.40% / 61%
Edge (Heuman)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13109556
Marsalek2.20
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 19 of 43
Down 0–1, comes back28% 7 of 25
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 15
Heuman1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite46% won 49 of 106
Up 2–0, closes it96% 23 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it68% 36 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeMarsalek1wins
AwayHeuman2wins
1 of 3 to a deciderHeuman leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marsalek2Heuman1n = 3Marsalek took 2 of 3
S2Marsalek1Heuman2n = 3Heuman took 2 of 3
S3Marsalek0Heuman3n = 3Heuman took 3 of 3
S4Marsalek1Heuman2n = 3Heuman took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away267%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricMarsalekHeumanM − HBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match36.738.0−1.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarsalekHeumanBasisWin rate · lifetime49 / 107 vs 196 / 39845.8%49.3%49 / 107 vs 196 / 398Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.839.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HeumanMarsalek 2.20/Heuman 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.5%
Heuman · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Marsalek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LAug 28 · 20:50P. Marsalek—117851I. Heuman—91111113
WAug 28 · 20:15P. Marsalek—411511113I. Heuman—11211722
LAug 10 · 20:15P. Marsalek—119981I. Heuman—61111113
P. Marsalek10
LSep 10 · 17:45J. Travnicek1.6712114143P. Marsalek2.1010511121LSep 6 · 20:48P. Marsalek2.0058100D. Skulina1.731111123LSep 6 · 20:10J. Travnicek1.731191112113P. Marsalek2.0091181462LSep 6 · 19:10P. Marsalek2.20891131M. Macurak1.6111118113WSep 6 · 17:40D. Skulina1.50101331182P. Marsalek2.501211117113LAug 28 · 20:50P. Marsalek1.91117851I. Heuman1.8091111113WAug 28 · 20:15P. Marsalek2.10411511113I. Heuman1.6711211722LAug 28 · 18:45K. Kleprlik1.7341311113P. Marsalek2.001111831LAug 28 · 18:15J. Travnicek1.8311157113P. Marsalek1.837131161LAug 26 · 20:45P. Marsalek1.67115881J. Travnicek2.1051111113
I. Heuman10
LSep 10 · 19:45J. Travnicek1.67911116113I. Heuman2.1011531162WSep 10 · 18:15I. Heuman1.8311311113A. Kanak1.83611661LSep 5 · 21:30I. Heuman2.639740T. Lysek1.441111113LSep 5 · 20:15T. Lysek2.208111011153I. Heuman1.61119129132WSep 5 · 19:15I. Heuman1.73128116183A. Cizek2.001011611162WSep 5 · 17:45K. Kleprlik2.006131291I. Heuman1.73111114113LSep 4 · 20:38J. Travnicek1.731111133I. Heuman2.0099110WSep 4 · 19:45I. Heuman1.9111143113D. Skulina1.809121161WAug 28 · 20:50P. Marsalek1.91117851I. Heuman1.8091111113LAug 28 · 20:15P. Marsalek2.10411511113I. Heuman1.6711211722
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