TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13119708
Played Sep 12Finished
Jiri Palat
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
6111181141012711
Daniel Vitasek
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:54 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeDaniel Vitasek to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Palat above · Daniel Vitasek below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 91 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Daniel Vitasek at 57.7%
91 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Palat 3–3 Daniel Vitasek Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:54What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Vitasek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Palat 1557 vs Vitasek 1618
Vitasek
Correct
both rated, 60 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Palat 20% vs Vitasek 60%
Vitasek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Palat 30% vs Vitasek 60%
Vitasek
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Palat -3 · Vitasek -1
Palat
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Vitasek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Palat form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPalat 2.20 / Vitasek 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Vitasek)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13119708
Palat2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Vitasek1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite47% won 68 of 145
Up 2–0, closes it97% 37 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it68% 52 of 76
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomePalat3wins
AwayVitasek3wins
1 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePalatn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayVitasek75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Palat2Vitasek4n = 6Vitasek took 4 of 6
S2Palat3Vitasek3n = 6split evenly
S3Palat4Vitasek2n = 6Palat took 4 of 6
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home233%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away233%
These 6 meetings
MetricPalatVitasekP − VBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match30.730.0+0.7per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPalatVitasekBasisWin rate · lifetime22 / 47 vs 296 / 60946.8%48.6%22 / 47 vs 296 / 609Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.938.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VitasekPalat 2.20/Vitasek 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.7%
Vitasek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Vitasek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LMar 29 · 12:45J. Palat2711880D. Vitasek351311113
WMar 29 · 10:15J. Palat331111113D. Vitasek176650
LMar 14 · 19:10J. Palat3652111172D. Vitasek46111185113
LFeb 14 · 09:40J. Palat202990D. Vitasek331111113
WFeb 14 · 08:10J. Palat331111113D. Vitasek249870
WDec 30 · 15:45J. Palat3521111113D. Vitasek25117431
J. Palat10
LSep 12 · 18:40J. Palat2.20661161I. Heuman1.6111117113LSep 12 · 17:40J. Palat1.83311971P. Marsalek1.8311711113LAug 15 · 08:39J. Palat1.83912481T. Krenek1.83111011113WAug 15 · 08:10T. Krenek1.67106130J. Palat2.101211153LAug 15 · 07:10J. Palat2.2561111962J. Skalicky1.57114311113LAug 15 · 05:40B. Moravec1.5371111113J. Palat2.38114431LMay 9 · 21:15J. Palat—10770F. Chaloupka—1211113LMay 9 · 20:15J. Palat—88110I. Heuman—1111133WMay 9 · 18:45F. Chaloupka1.611081191J. Palat2.0912113113WMay 9 · 18:15J. Travnicek—11911792J. Palat—511711113
D. Vitasek10
LSep 12 · 19:10P. Marsalek1.91111114113D. Vitasek1.801391291WSep 12 · 18:10D. Vitasek1.831311113143I. Heuman1.83157711122WSep 12 · 16:50D. Vitasek—1111133D. Skulina—98110WSep 12 · 15:40D. Skulina1.501111781D. Vitasek2.5061311113LSep 12 · 15:10E. Precek1.831412113D. Vitasek1.83121090LSep 12 · 14:10D. Vitasek1.8341151142I. Heuman1.83118114113WAug 30 · 09:20K. Kleprlik1.837111381D. Vitasek1.8311815113WAug 30 · 07:45E. Precek1.8011613111D. Vitasek1.9181115133WAug 30 · 07:15L. Dzida2.00991151D. Vitasek1.7311113113LAug 30 · 06:15D. Vitasek1.80791251K. Kleprlik1.91111110113
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