TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13119561
Played Sep 12Finished
Daniel Vitasek
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
13151171173111412
Ivan Heuman
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:26 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDaniel Vitasek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDaniel Vitasek above · Ivan Heuman below
Set 1 · 13-15
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 3-11
Set 5 · 14-12
Point 104 set 5, 14-12 — our read held Daniel Vitasek at 54.0%
104 points played in total.
H2H Daniel Vitasek 18–19 Ivan Heuman Daniel Vitasek has won 18 of their 37 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Heuman beat Vitasek 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:26What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Heuman
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-19 in 37
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vitasek 1604 vs Heuman 1569
Vitasek
Correct
both rated, 35 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vitasek 60% vs Heuman 40%
Vitasek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vitasek 50% vs Heuman 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vitasek +1 · Heuman -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Vitasek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Heuman form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVitasek 1.83 / Heuman 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Vitasek)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13119561
Vitasek1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Heuman1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVitasek5wins
AwayHeuman5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVitasek75%3 of 4
AwayHeuman66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vitasek4Heuman6n = 10Heuman took 6 of 10
S2Vitasek4Heuman6n = 10Heuman took 6 of 10
S3Vitasek8Heuman2n = 10Vitasek took 8 of 10
S4Vitasek7Heuman2n = 9Vitasek took 7 of 9
S5Vitasek0Heuman3n = 3Heuman took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricVitasekHeumanV − HBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.440.1+0.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVitasekHeumanBasisWin rate · lifetime294 / 606 vs 200 / 40948.5%48.9%294 / 606 vs 200 / 409Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.039.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VitasekVitasek 1.83/Heuman 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Vitasek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Vitasek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 11 · 18:40D. Vitasek4361111153I. Heuman351192131
LAug 10 · 17:45D. Vitasek4211861252I. Heuman529111110113
WAug 8 · 17:45D. Vitasek4013511113I. Heuman401111991
LJul 31 · 20:39D. Vitasek351071171I. Heuman4312119113
LJul 31 · 18:10D. Vitasek4296111152I. Heuman4111116583
LJul 12 · 21:15D. Vitasek361011781I. Heuman4212811113
WJul 12 · 19:45D. Vitasek4041114113I. Heuman311151231
WJul 7 · 18:40D. Vitasek4511814123I. Heuman4291112101
WJun 1 · 08:40D. Vitasek341111123I. Heuman2798100
LJun 1 · 06:10D. Vitasek4788111192I. Heuman48111178113
D. Vitasek10
WSep 12 · 16:50D. Vitasek—1111133D. Skulina—98110WSep 12 · 15:40D. Skulina1.501111781D. Vitasek2.5061311113LSep 12 · 15:10E. Precek1.831412113D. Vitasek1.83121090LSep 12 · 14:10D. Vitasek1.8341151142I. Heuman1.83118114113WAug 30 · 09:20K. Kleprlik1.837111381D. Vitasek1.8311815113WAug 30 · 07:45E. Precek1.8011613111D. Vitasek1.9181115133WAug 30 · 07:15L. Dzida2.00991151D. Vitasek1.7311113113LAug 30 · 06:15D. Vitasek1.80791251K. Kleprlik1.91111110113LAug 28 · 20:35J. Gembala1.301111113D. Vitasek3.408260LAug 28 · 20:10D. Vitasek1.804480T. Kindl1.911111113
I. Heuman10
WSep 12 · 18:40J. Palat2.20661161I. Heuman1.6111117113LSep 12 · 17:20I. Heuman1.91119381E. Precek1.8071111113WSep 12 · 16:10I. Heuman2.101111119113E. Precek1.6759131182LSep 12 · 14:40D. Skulina1.6712141111113I. Heuman2.1014169932WSep 12 · 14:10D. Vitasek1.8341151142I. Heuman1.83118114113LSep 11 · 20:49I. Heuman1.67561161K. Kleprlik2.1011119113WSep 11 · 20:15K. Kleprlik1.807111081I. Heuman1.9111812113LSep 11 · 19:15I. Heuman2.0051121132F. Chaloupka1.73116117113LSep 11 · 17:45D. Skulina1.7311118113I. Heuman2.00591191WSep 10 · 20:48P. Marsalek1.8010760I. Heuman1.911211113
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