TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13114129
Played Sep 11Finished
Ivan Heuman
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
511116211117311
Frantisek Chaloupka
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:24 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeFrantisek Chaloupka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIvan Heuman above · Frantisek Chaloupka below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 2-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 3-11
Point 78 set 5, 3-11 — our read held Frantisek Chaloupka at 54.0%
78 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Heuman 7–11 Frantisek Chaloupka Ivan Heuman has won 7 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:24What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Chaloupka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-11 in 18
Chaloupka
Correct
gap of 4 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Heuman 1519 vs Chaloupka 1615
Chaloupka
Correct
both rated, 96 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Heuman 40% vs Chaloupka 80%
Chaloupka
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Heuman 40% vs Chaloupka 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Heuman -1 · Chaloupka -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Chaloupka) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chaloupka form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHeuman 2.00 / Chaloupka 1.73
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Chaloupka)+1.6pp
TT Cup · #13114129
Heuman2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog49% won 64 of 132
Down 0–1, comes back34% 20 of 59
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 21
Chaloupka1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 105 of 192
Up 2–0, closes it96% 71 of 74
Up 1–0, closes it74% 91 of 123
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHeuman6wins
AwayChaloupka4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderHeuman leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHeuman100%4 of 4
AwayChaloupka66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Heuman4Chaloupka6n = 10Chaloupka took 6 of 10
S2Heuman8Chaloupka2n = 10Heuman took 8 of 10
S3Heuman4Chaloupka6n = 10Chaloupka took 6 of 10
S4Heuman4Chaloupka4n = 8split evenly
S5Heuman2Chaloupka1n = 3Heuman took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricHeumanChaloupkaH − CBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.039.7−0.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHeumanChaloupkaBasisWin rate · lifetime197 / 402 vs 263 / 50649%52%197 / 402 vs 263 / 506Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.639.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChaloupkaHeuman 2.00/Chaloupka 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.3%
Chaloupka · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Chaloupka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 21 · 19:10I. Heuman—7111315113F. Chaloupka—119111792
LJul 4 · 20:45I. Heuman—9690F. Chaloupka—1111113
WJul 4 · 20:10I. Heuman—11117113F. Chaloupka—781191
WJul 1 · 13:40I. Heuman—11115113F. Chaloupka—981171
WJun 27 · 21:15I. Heuman—1111113F. Chaloupka—7890
LJun 27 · 19:45I. Heuman—9101191F. Chaloupka—11127113
LJun 14 · 13:45I. Heuman—813871F. Chaloupka—111111113
WJun 10 · 16:10I. Heuman—11117113F. Chaloupka—981181
LMay 29 · 15:15I. Heuman—61171132F. Chaloupka—117114113
WMay 21 · 15:10I. Heuman—611116113F. Chaloupka—11891192
I. Heuman10
LSep 11 · 17:45D. Skulina1.7311118113I. Heuman2.00591191WSep 10 · 20:48P. Marsalek1.8010760I. Heuman1.911211113LSep 10 · 19:45J. Travnicek1.67911116113I. Heuman2.1011531162LSep 10 · 19:15P. Marsalek2.2011711113I. Heuman1.61611891WSep 10 · 18:15I. Heuman1.8311311113A. Kanak1.83611661LSep 5 · 21:30I. Heuman2.639740T. Lysek1.441111113LSep 5 · 20:15T. Lysek2.208111011153I. Heuman1.61119129132WSep 5 · 19:15I. Heuman1.73128116183A. Cizek2.001011611162WSep 5 · 17:45K. Kleprlik2.006131291I. Heuman1.73111114113LSep 4 · 20:38J. Travnicek1.731111133I. Heuman2.0099110
F. Chaloupka10
WSep 11 · 19:45D. Skulina2.3811771412F. Chaloupka1.537111112113LSep 11 · 18:15F. Chaloupka1.67611971K. Kleprlik2.1011911113WSep 11 · 17:15F. Chaloupka2.4011118143B. Moravec1.509911121WSep 11 · 16:15R. Benes2.2588110F. Chaloupka1.571111133WSep 11 · 15:15F. Chaloupka2.7511119113J. Pribyl1.40551151WSep 11 · 13:45B. Moravec1.44911681F. Chaloupka2.6311711113WSep 10 · 16:50B. Moravec1.4411741192F. Chaloupka2.63611114113LSep 10 · 16:15J. Pribyl1.36121111123F. Chaloupka3.0010134101LSep 10 · 15:15F. Chaloupka2.20611371J. Skvrna1.6111911113LSep 10 · 13:45B. Moravec1.50111195113F. Chaloupka2.5057111162
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