TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13115962
Played Sep 11Finished
Frantisek Chaloupka
Home
2.40
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1191198111412––
Borek Moravec
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:45 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeFrantisek Chaloupka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingFrantisek Chaloupka above · Borek Moravec below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 14-12
Point 85 set 4, 14-12 — our read held Frantisek Chaloupka at 54.0%
85 points played in total.
H2H Frantisek Chaloupka 21–36 Borek Moravec Frantisek Chaloupka has won 21 of their 57 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Chaloupka beat Moravec 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:45What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (62%)
Moravec
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-36 in 57
Moravec
Wrong
gap of 15 in 57, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chaloupka 1633 vs Moravec 1732
Moravec
Wrong
both rated, 99 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chaloupka 80% vs Moravec 40%
Chaloupka
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chaloupka 50% vs Moravec 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chaloupka +4 · Moravec +2
Chaloupka
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Moravec) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moravec form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChaloupka 2.40 / Moravec 1.50
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Moravec)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13115962
Chaloupka2.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 53 of 117
Down 0–1, comes back30% 19 of 64
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 29
Moravec1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite71% won 111 of 157
Up 2–0, closes it100% 51 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it87% 79 of 91
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChaloupka3wins
AwayMoravec7wins
6 of 10 to a deciderMoravec leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChaloupka50%2 of 4
AwayMoravec83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chaloupka4Moravec6n = 10Moravec took 6 of 10
S2Chaloupka6Moravec4n = 10Chaloupka took 6 of 10
S3Chaloupka5Moravec5n = 10split evenly
S4Chaloupka3Moravec7n = 10Moravec took 7 of 10
S5Chaloupka2Moravec4n = 6Moravec took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricChaloupkaMoravecC − MBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.943.1−2.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChaloupkaMoravecBasisWin rate · lifetime262 / 504 vs 256 / 44852%57.1%262 / 504 vs 256 / 448Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match39.539.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MoravecChaloupka 2.40/Moravec 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.9%
Moravec · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Chaloupka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 13:45F. Chaloupka—11711113B. Moravec—911681
WSep 10 · 16:50F. Chaloupka—611114113B. Moravec—11741192
LSep 10 · 13:45F. Chaloupka—57111162B. Moravec—111195113
LSep 6 · 08:53F. Chaloupka—81151172B. Moravec—117114113
WSep 6 · 06:40F. Chaloupka—111159113B. Moravec—36111172
LAug 30 · 07:40F. Chaloupka—111181032B. Moravec—831112113
LAug 21 · 15:40F. Chaloupka—11711782B. Moravec—711811113
LAug 16 · 06:40F. Chaloupka—961491B. Moravec—111112113
LAug 13 · 13:40F. Chaloupka—814751B. Moravec—111211113
LAug 8 · 07:40F. Chaloupka—8111091B. Moravec—11912113
F. Chaloupka10
WSep 11 · 16:15R. Benes2.2588110F. Chaloupka1.571111133WSep 11 · 15:15F. Chaloupka2.7511119113J. Pribyl1.40551151WSep 11 · 13:45B. Moravec1.44911681F. Chaloupka2.6311711113WSep 10 · 16:50B. Moravec1.4411741192F. Chaloupka2.63611114113LSep 10 · 16:15J. Pribyl1.36121111123F. Chaloupka3.0010134101LSep 10 · 15:15F. Chaloupka2.20611371J. Skvrna1.6111911113LSep 10 · 13:45B. Moravec1.50111195113F. Chaloupka2.5057111162LSep 6 · 08:53F. Chaloupka3.0081151172B. Moravec1.36117114113LSep 6 · 08:10F. Chaloupka1.911111711112D. Stusek1.80913119133WSep 6 · 06:40B. Moravec1.4436111172F. Chaloupka2.63111159113
B. Moravec10
WSep 11 · 15:45B. Moravec1.8011118113J. Pribyl1.91861161WSep 11 · 14:45B. Moravec1.6711211113R. Benes2.10911771LSep 11 · 13:45B. Moravec1.44911681F. Chaloupka2.6311711113LSep 10 · 16:50B. Moravec1.4411741192F. Chaloupka2.63611114113LSep 10 · 15:45B. Moravec1.441061171J. Skvrna2.6312118113LSep 10 · 14:45B. Moravec2.00119911112J. Pribyl1.73611114133WSep 10 · 13:45B. Moravec1.50111195113F. Chaloupka2.5057111162WSep 6 · 08:53F. Chaloupka3.0081151172B. Moravec1.36117114113LSep 6 · 07:40B. Moravec1.80611761J. Gembala1.9111211113LSep 6 · 06:40B. Moravec1.4436111172F. Chaloupka2.63111159113
Upcoming Matches
F. Chaloupka
B. Moravec
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