TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13119211
Played Sep 12Finished
Patrik Marsalek
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11131191412119––
Daniel Vitasek
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:18 and never touched — 54.7% is still 54.7%
Graded at full timeDaniel Vitasek to win
54.7%
54.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPatrik Marsalek above · Daniel Vitasek below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 90 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Daniel Vitasek at 54.7%
90 points played in total.
H2H Patrik Marsalek 4–7 Daniel Vitasek Patrik Marsalek has won 4 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:18What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Vitasek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-7 in 11
Vitasek
Wrong
gap of 3 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marsalek 1530 vs Vitasek 1617
Vitasek
Wrong
both rated, 87 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marsalek 40% vs Vitasek 60%
Vitasek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marsalek 30% vs Vitasek 60%
Vitasek
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Marsalek +1 · Vitasek +3
Vitasek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Vitasek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marsalek form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarsalek 1.91 / Vitasek 1.80
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Vitasek)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13119211
Marsalek1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 20 of 46
Down 0–1, comes back26% 7 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 16
Vitasek1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite47% won 68 of 145
Up 2–0, closes it97% 37 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it68% 52 of 76
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMarsalek3wins
AwayVitasek7wins
1 of 10 to a deciderVitasek leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarsalek100%3 of 3
AwayVitasek100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marsalek3Vitasek7n = 10Vitasek took 7 of 10
S2Marsalek6Vitasek4n = 10Marsalek took 6 of 10
S3Marsalek6Vitasek4n = 10Marsalek took 6 of 10
S4Marsalek1Vitasek5n = 6Vitasek took 5 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMarsalekVitasekM − VBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match33.835.8−2.0per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarsalekVitasekBasisWin rate · lifetime51 / 111 vs 296 / 60846%48.7%51 / 111 vs 296 / 608Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VitasekMarsalek 1.91/Vitasek 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.7%
Vitasek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Marsalek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 26 · 20:10P. Marsalek35715851D. Vitasek46111311113
LAug 20 · 20:35P. Marsalek2019100D. Vitasek341111123
WAug 20 · 18:10P. Marsalek331111113D. Vitasek235990
LAug 10 · 20:50P. Marsalek4891171292D. Vitasek521191110113
WAug 10 · 18:45P. Marsalek341211113D. Vitasek2210570
LAug 3 · 21:05P. Marsalek33871171D. Vitasek3911116113
WAug 3 · 20:10P. Marsalek331111113D. Vitasek177820
LMay 8 · 08:15P. Marsalek31811571D. Vitasek4011711113
LApr 16 · 21:15P. Marsalek34881171D. Vitasek4011117113
LApr 16 · 17:45P. Marsalek378612111D. Vitasek45111110133
P. Marsalek10
WSep 12 · 17:40J. Palat1.83311971P. Marsalek1.8311711113LSep 10 · 20:48P. Marsalek1.8010760I. Heuman1.911211113LSep 10 · 20:15A. Kanak1.73118711113P. Marsalek2.0081111792WSep 10 · 19:15P. Marsalek2.2011711113I. Heuman1.61611891LSep 10 · 17:45J. Travnicek1.6712114143P. Marsalek2.1010511121LSep 6 · 20:48P. Marsalek2.0058100D. Skulina1.731111123LSep 6 · 20:10J. Travnicek1.731191112113P. Marsalek2.0091181462LSep 6 · 19:10P. Marsalek2.20891131M. Macurak1.6111118113WSep 6 · 17:40D. Skulina1.50101331182P. Marsalek2.501211117113LAug 28 · 20:50P. Marsalek1.91117851I. Heuman1.8091111113
D. Vitasek10
WSep 12 · 19:40J. Palat2.20611111072D. Vitasek1.61118412113WSep 12 · 18:10D. Vitasek1.831311113143I. Heuman1.83157711122WSep 12 · 16:50D. Vitasek—1111133D. Skulina—98110WSep 12 · 15:40D. Skulina1.501111781D. Vitasek2.5061311113LSep 12 · 15:10E. Precek1.831412113D. Vitasek1.83121090LSep 12 · 14:10D. Vitasek1.8341151142I. Heuman1.83118114113WAug 30 · 09:20K. Kleprlik1.837111381D. Vitasek1.8311815113WAug 30 · 07:45E. Precek1.8011613111D. Vitasek1.9181115133WAug 30 · 07:15L. Dzida2.00991151D. Vitasek1.7311113113LAug 30 · 06:15D. Vitasek1.80791251K. Kleprlik1.91111110113
Upcoming Matches
P. Marsalek
D. Vitasek
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