TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13119665
Played Sep 12Finished
Ivan Heuman
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
511116711511––
Patrik Marsalek
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:54 and never touched — 60.9% is still 60.9%
Graded at full timeIvan Heuman to win
60.9%
60.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingIvan Heuman above · Patrik Marsalek below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 67 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Ivan Heuman at 60.9%
67 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Heuman 3–2 Patrik Marsalek Patrik Marsalek has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:54What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Heuman
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Heuman 1583 vs Marsalek 1530
Heuman
Wrong
both rated, 53 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Heuman 40% vs Marsalek 60%
Marsalek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Heuman 40% vs Marsalek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Heuman +1 · Marsalek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Heuman) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marsalek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHeuman 1.61 / Marsalek 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Heuman)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13119665
Heuman1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite46% won 50 of 109
Up 2–0, closes it96% 23 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it69% 37 of 54
Marsalek2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog44% won 20 of 46
Down 0–1, comes back26% 7 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeHeuman3wins
AwayMarsalek2wins
1 of 5 to a deciderHeuman leads 3–2, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHeumann = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMarsalek33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Heuman2Marsalek3n = 5Marsalek took 3 of 5
S2Heuman4Marsalek1n = 5Heuman took 4 of 5
S3Heuman4Marsalek1n = 5Heuman took 4 of 5
S4Heuman2Marsalek2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home240%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricHeumanMarsalekH − MBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match36.434.6+1.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHeumanMarsalekBasisWin rate · lifetime201 / 411 vs 52 / 11248.9%46.4%201 / 411 vs 52 / 112Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.637.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HeumanHeuman 1.61/Marsalek 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Heuman · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Marsalek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 10 · 20:48I. Heuman341211113P. Marsalek2310760
LSep 10 · 19:15I. Heuman34611891P. Marsalek4011711113
WAug 28 · 20:50I. Heuman4291111113P. Marsalek31117851
LAug 28 · 20:15I. Heuman3311211722P. Marsalek42411511113
WAug 10 · 20:15I. Heuman3961111113P. Marsalek37119981
I. Heuman10
LSep 12 · 20:39I. Heuman1.55114591J. Palat2.3041111113WSep 12 · 18:40J. Palat2.20661161I. Heuman1.6111117113LSep 12 · 18:10D. Vitasek1.831311113143I. Heuman1.83157711122LSep 12 · 17:20I. Heuman1.91119381E. Precek1.8071111113WSep 12 · 16:10I. Heuman2.101111119113E. Precek1.6759131182LSep 12 · 14:40D. Skulina1.6712141111113I. Heuman2.1014169932WSep 12 · 14:10D. Vitasek1.8341151142I. Heuman1.83118114113LSep 11 · 20:49I. Heuman1.67561161K. Kleprlik2.1011119113WSep 11 · 20:15K. Kleprlik1.807111081I. Heuman1.9111812113LSep 11 · 19:15I. Heuman2.0051121132F. Chaloupka1.73116117113
P. Marsalek10
WSep 12 · 19:10P. Marsalek1.91111114113D. Vitasek1.801391291WSep 12 · 17:40J. Palat1.83311971P. Marsalek1.8311711113LSep 10 · 20:48P. Marsalek1.8010760I. Heuman1.911211113LSep 10 · 20:15A. Kanak1.73118711113P. Marsalek2.0081111792WSep 10 · 19:15P. Marsalek2.2011711113I. Heuman1.61611891LSep 10 · 17:45J. Travnicek1.6712114143P. Marsalek2.1010511121LSep 6 · 20:48P. Marsalek2.0058100D. Skulina1.731111123LSep 6 · 20:10J. Travnicek1.731191112113P. Marsalek2.0091181462LSep 6 · 19:10P. Marsalek2.20891131M. Macurak1.6111118113WSep 6 · 17:40D. Skulina1.50101331182P. Marsalek2.501211117113
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