TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13129334
Played Sep 14Finished
Jakub Travnicek
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
211113511911––
Daniel Vitasek
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:41 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDaniel Vitasek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Travnicek above · Daniel Vitasek below
Set 1 · 2-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 63 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Daniel Vitasek at 54.0%
63 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Travnicek 27–30 Daniel Vitasek Jakub Travnicek has won 27 of their 57 meetings.
The pickContradict
Sealed 12:41What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Vitasek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
27-30 in 57
Vitasek
Correct
gap of 3 in 57, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Travnicek 1623 vs Vitasek 1591
Travnicek
Wrong
both rated, 32 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Travnicek 60% vs Vitasek 40%
Travnicek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Travnicek 60% vs Vitasek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Travnicek +1 · Vitasek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as Contradict.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Vitasek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vitasek form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTravnicek 2.00 / Vitasek 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Vitasek)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13129334
Travnicek2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog49% won 52 of 106
Down 0–1, comes back30% 19 of 64
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 31
Vitasek1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite50% won 63 of 126
Up 2–0, closes it100% 34 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it74% 49 of 66
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTravnicek4wins
AwayVitasek6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderVitasek leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTravnicek75%3 of 4
AwayVitasek83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Travnicek4Vitasek6n = 10Vitasek took 6 of 10
S2Travnicek3Vitasek7n = 10Vitasek took 7 of 10
S3Travnicek4Vitasek6n = 10Vitasek took 6 of 10
S4Travnicek3Vitasek3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricTravnicekVitasekT − VBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.236.5+0.7per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTravnicekVitasekBasisWin rate · lifetime204 / 411 vs 298 / 61349.6%48.6%204 / 411 vs 298 / 613Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TravnicekTravnicek 2.00/Vitasek 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Vitasek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Vitasek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 22 · 08:50J. Travnicek32910130D. Vitasek381112153
WAug 22 · 06:15J. Travnicek518111011113D. Vitasek3711512452
WAug 20 · 19:10J. Travnicek4011711113D. Vitasek27211681
LAug 15 · 20:53J. Travnicek311010110D. Vitasek371212133
LAug 15 · 18:45J. Travnicek33911941D. Vitasek4211911113
LAug 8 · 19:15J. Travnicek391112881D. Vitasek4591411113
LAug 3 · 19:10J. Travnicek439911141D. Vitasek4711119163
LJul 31 · 20:10J. Travnicek269980D. Vitasek331111113
WJul 20 · 20:45J. Travnicek341111123D. Vitasek2165100
WJul 20 · 17:40J. Travnicek4311711143D. Vitasek389116121
J. Travnicek10
WSep 14 · 18:40J. Travnicek1.83117711113A. Kanak1.8391111892LSep 14 · 17:40J. Travnicek1.61991291I. Heuman2.20111110113WSep 10 · 21:18A. Kanak1.83118111292J. Travnicek1.831311810113WSep 10 · 19:45J. Travnicek1.67911116113I. Heuman2.1011531162LSep 10 · 18:45J. Travnicek1.73411881A. Kanak2.0011811113WSep 10 · 17:45J. Travnicek1.6712114143P. Marsalek2.1010511121LSep 7 · 21:15J. Travnicek1.8324130D. Skulina1.831111153WSep 7 · 20:15J. Travnicek1.8011911113R. Sedlacek1.91611651WSep 7 · 18:45D. Skulina1.735970J. Travnicek2.001111113LSep 7 · 18:15J. Krupnik1.73915115113J. Travnicek2.00111391162
D. Vitasek10
LSep 14 · 19:10I. Heuman1.831111113D. Vitasek1.837680WSep 14 · 18:10D. Vitasek1.831191112113A. Kanak1.8341161462LSep 12 · 21:08P. Marsalek1.8371111113D. Vitasek1.83115611WSep 12 · 19:40J. Palat2.20611111072D. Vitasek1.61118412113LSep 12 · 19:10P. Marsalek1.91111114113D. Vitasek1.801391291WSep 12 · 18:10D. Vitasek1.831311113143I. Heuman1.83157711122WSep 12 · 16:50D. Vitasek—1111133D. Skulina—98110WSep 12 · 15:40D. Skulina1.501111781D. Vitasek2.5061311113LSep 12 · 15:10E. Precek1.831412113D. Vitasek1.83121090LSep 12 · 14:10D. Vitasek1.8341151142I. Heuman1.83118114113
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