TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13131505
Played Sep 15Finished
Adam Strelec
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1151141210––––
Lukas Krupnik Snr
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:14 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Krupnik Snr to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAdam Strelec above · Lukas Krupnik Snr below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 53 set 3, 12-10 — our read held Lukas Krupnik Snr at 54.0%
53 points played in total.
H2H Adam Strelec 3–4 Lukas Krupnik Snr Adam Strelec has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:14What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Snr
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Strelec 1381 vs Snr 1332
Strelec
Correct
both rated, 49 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Strelec 60% vs Snr 40%
Strelec
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Strelec 70% vs Snr 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Strelec +3 · Snr +1
Strelec
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Snr)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Snr form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStrelec 2.00 / Snr 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Snr)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13131505
Strelec2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 32 of 72
Down 0–1, comes back25% 10 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 20
Snr1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite44% won 17 of 39
Up 2–0, closes it91% 10 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it63% 12 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeStrelec3wins
AwaySnr4wins
2 of 7 to a deciderSnr leads 4–3, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStrelec75%3 of 4
AwaySnr100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Strelec4Snr3n = 7Strelec took 4 of 7
S2Strelec4Snr3n = 7Strelec took 4 of 7
S3Strelec5Snr2n = 7Strelec took 5 of 7
S4Strelec2Snr3n = 5Snr took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home229%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away229%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricStrelecSnrStrelec − SnrBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set43+1of 7Avg pointsper match38.037.0+1.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStrelecSnrBasisWin rate · lifetime115 / 231 vs 58 / 12649.8%46%115 / 231 vs 58 / 126Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.637.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SnrStrelec 2.00/Snr 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Snr · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Strelec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WSep 15 · 06:10A. Strelec341111123L. Snr1954100
LSep 7 · 09:13A. Strelec4611911872L. Snr48911611113
LSep 7 · 07:45A. Strelec32711861L. Snr3811511113
LSep 2 · 08:10A. Strelec50913111162L. Snr531111137113
WSep 1 · 06:10A. Strelec4011711113L. Snr33911491
LJun 4 · 12:40A. Strelec30391171L. Snr4211119113
WJun 4 · 09:40A. Strelec341111123L. Snr2697100
A. Strelec10
WSep 14 · 09:33J. Matus1.91111071172A. Strelec1.80212115113WSep 14 · 07:40J. Sindler1.737990A. Strelec2.001111113WSep 14 · 07:10P. Sturma2.3811118942A. Strelec1.53681111113LSep 14 · 06:10A. Strelec1.80118125112J. Matus1.915111011133LSep 9 · 09:20A. Strelec1.77371171J. Matus1.8711116113WSep 9 · 07:45J. Sindler1.6791111742A. Strelec2.10117411113WSep 9 · 07:15F. Mandrysz1.67112881A. Strelec2.1061111113WSep 9 · 06:15A. Strelec1.83119116133J. Matus1.83811411112WSep 8 · 09:00R. Jancak1.83712761A. Strelec1.83111011113LSep 8 · 08:15A. Strelec1.731212111172R. Jancak2.00141458113
L. Snr10
LSep 15 · 06:40I. Jemelka1.611111113L. Snr2.208680WSep 8 · 12:43P. Sturma1.83811991L. Snr1.8311411113LSep 8 · 11:45L. Snr1.73118761P. Sturma2.0031111113LSep 8 · 10:45L. Snr1.91651171R. Jancak1.8011119113LSep 8 · 09:45L. Snr1.6751191172R. Sedivy2.10119118113WSep 7 · 09:13L. Snr1.73911611113A. Strelec2.0011911872WSep 7 · 07:45A. Strelec1.83711861L. Snr1.8311511113WSep 7 · 07:15F. Mandrysz2.10128911112L. Snr1.671011117133LSep 7 · 06:15L. Snr2.1014461192T. Slivka1.671211118113WSep 2 · 08:55J. Sindler1.671181171L. Snr2.1013117113
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