TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13131328
Played Sep 15Finished
Ivan Elfemov
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511911311––––
Andrii Lifanov
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:43 and never touched — 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeAndrii Lifanov to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIvan Elfemov above · Andrii Lifanov below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 3-11
Point 50 set 3, 3-11 — our read held Andrii Lifanov at 65.7%
50 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Elfemov 5–9 Andrii Lifanov Ivan Elfemov has won 5 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:43What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Lifanov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-9 in 14
Lifanov
Correct
gap of 4 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Elfemov 1381 vs Lifanov 1455
Lifanov
Correct
both rated, 74 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Elfemov 20% vs Lifanov 40%
Lifanov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Elfemov 40% vs Lifanov 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Elfemov -2 · Lifanov +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Lifanov) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lifanov form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsElfemov 2.50 / Lifanov 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Lifanov)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13131328
Elfemov2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 39 of 104
Down 0–1, comes back27% 17 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 37
Lifanov1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 116 of 188
Up 2–0, closes it97% 62 of 64
Up 1–0, closes it83% 90 of 108
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeElfemov4wins
AwayLifanov6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLifanov leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeElfemov100%3 of 3
AwayLifanov85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Elfemov3Lifanov7n = 10Lifanov took 7 of 10
S2Elfemov5Lifanov5n = 10split evenly
S3Elfemov4Lifanov6n = 10Lifanov took 6 of 10
S4Elfemov1Lifanov4n = 5Lifanov took 4 of 5
S5Elfemov3Lifanov2n = 5Elfemov took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricElfemovLifanovE − LBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match36.237.9−1.7per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricElfemovLifanovBasisWin rate · lifetime285 / 476 vs 210 / 37759.9%55.7%285 / 476 vs 210 / 377Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LifanovElfemov 2.50/Lifanov 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.7%
Lifanov · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Lifanov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 10 · 13:25I. Elfemov46111149113A. Lifanov3446111122
LSep 1 · 16:55I. Elfemov49871112112A. Lifanov491111410133
LAug 26 · 14:35I. Elfemov2712870A. Lifanov361411113
WAug 25 · 14:05I. Elfemov521211117113A. Lifanov4514571182
LAug 16 · 14:25I. Elfemov208930A. Lifanov331111113
LAug 6 · 15:35I. Elfemov4281111482A. Lifanov48116911113
WJul 30 · 14:05I. Elfemov48111187113A. Lifanov4598111162
LJul 29 · 17:35I. Elfemov188460A. Lifanov331111113
WJun 25 · 19:55I. Elfemov331111113A. Lifanov186390
LJun 23 · 18:35I. Elfemov2767140A. Lifanov381111163
I. Elfemov10
LSep 15 · 19:35V. Hainiuk1.671113113I. Elfemov2.1081160LSep 15 · 16:05A. Yakovenko1.3381111123I. Elfemov3.251148101LSep 15 · 14:05V. Kaganovych1.5711511113I. Elfemov2.25911871WSep 15 · 13:05F. Chashchin1.6110760I. Elfemov2.201211113LSep 14 · 18:35O. Korobov1.3091114113I. Elfemov3.401131241LSep 14 · 17:35I. Elfemov2.00611791V. Hainiuk1.7311711113WSep 14 · 16:35I. Elfemov1.5011511113V. Sydorenko2.50711691WSep 14 · 15:05I. Elfemov2.106111013113V. Sharpai1.67119121192LSep 14 · 13:05I. Elfemov2.2511871192V. Kaganovych1.57711116113LSep 11 · 18:35I. Elfemov1.409111161Y. Bielokon2.7511135113
A. Lifanov10
WSep 15 · 19:05A. Yakovenko1.808490A. Lifanov1.911111113WSep 15 · 16:35F. Chashchin3.00912118122A. Lifanov1.361110511143LSep 15 · 14:35V. Hainiuk3.001111133A. Lifanov1.3649110LSep 15 · 12:35V. Kaganovych1.61911711113A. Lifanov2.2011911942LSep 10 · 19:55V. Chumak1.731111113A. Lifanov2.005840WSep 10 · 18:55A. Azarov3.255590A. Lifanov1.331111113WSep 10 · 17:25V. Sharpai1.6761111382A. Lifanov2.10119811113WSep 10 · 15:25D. Boltenkov2.1012119252A. Lifanov1.671071111113LSep 10 · 13:25I. Elfemov2.63111149113A. Lifanov1.4446111122LSep 1 · 19:55A. Lifanov2.20911111182V. Sharpai1.61117913113
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