TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13131314
Played Sep 15Finished
Anton Yakovenko
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811411911––––
Andrii Lifanov
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:41 and never touched — 54.7% is still 54.7%
Graded at full timeAndrii Lifanov to win
54.7%
54.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAnton Yakovenko above · Andrii Lifanov below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 54 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Andrii Lifanov at 54.7%
54 points played in total.
H2H Anton Yakovenko 6–5 Andrii Lifanov Andrii Lifanov has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:41What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Yakovenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-5 in 11
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Yakovenko 1438 vs Lifanov 1466
Lifanov
Correct
both rated, 28 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Yakovenko 40% vs Lifanov 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Yakovenko 40% vs Lifanov 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Yakovenko +2 · Lifanov +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Lifanov) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lifanov form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsYakovenko 1.80 / Lifanov 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Lifanov)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #13131314
Yakovenko1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite55% won 24 of 44
Up 2–0, closes it92% 12 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it80% 20 of 25
Lifanov1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 18 of 44
Down 0–1, comes back30% 9 of 30
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeYakovenko6wins
AwayLifanov4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderYakovenko leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeYakovenko60%3 of 5
AwayLifanov40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Yakovenko5Lifanov5n = 10split evenly
S2Yakovenko4Lifanov6n = 10Lifanov took 6 of 10
S3Yakovenko6Lifanov4n = 10Yakovenko took 6 of 10
S4Yakovenko5Lifanov3n = 8Yakovenko took 5 of 8
S5Yakovenko2Lifanov1n = 3Yakovenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricYakovenkoLifanovY − LBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.939.7−0.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricYakovenkoLifanovBasisWin rate · lifetime238 / 475 vs 211 / 37850.1%55.8%238 / 475 vs 211 / 378Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.238.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LifanovYakovenko 1.80/Lifanov 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Lifanov · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Lifanov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 22 · 19:25A. Yakovenko45561112113A. Lifanov45111151082
WJul 10 · 14:55A. Yakovenko4212811113A. Lifanov361011961
WJun 30 · 15:35A. Yakovenko4012116113A. Lifanov371091171
LJun 25 · 17:55A. Yakovenko30711120A. Lifanov381113143
WJun 23 · 15:05A. Yakovenko50911118113A. Lifanov4111691142
LJun 11 · 15:55A. Yakovenko41271111102A. Lifanov49111196123
LMay 28 · 20:25A. Yakovenko26117531A. Lifanov4291111113
WMay 20 · 17:55A. Yakovenko53161111153A. Lifanov421847131
LMay 14 · 17:05A. Yakovenko27114481A. Lifanov4181111113
WMay 13 · 16:55A. Yakovenko351112123A. Lifanov26610100
A. Yakovenko10
WSep 15 · 17:05V. Kaganovych2.003880A. Yakovenko1.731111113WSep 15 · 16:05A. Yakovenko1.3381111123I. Elfemov3.251148101LSep 15 · 15:05F. Chashchin3.4081111113A. Yakovenko1.30119481LSep 15 · 13:35A. Yakovenko1.571141291V. Hainiuk2.2581114113LSep 1 · 03:05A. Yakovenko3.401412241H. Kulishov1.30121411113LSep 1 · 01:35A. Yakovenko2.38591171M. Fomin1.5311117113WSep 1 · 24:05A. Yakovenko1.5711811123M. Skliar2.257119101WAug 31 · 22:35A. Yakovenko2.0041111113A. Peretiatko1.73118691LAug 31 · 21:05A. Yakovenko2.10119101362D. Kim1.677111211113LAug 28 · 03:05V. Kobets1.30811137113A. Yakovenko3.40113111172
A. Lifanov10
WSep 15 · 18:05I. Elfemov2.505930A. Lifanov1.501111113WSep 15 · 16:35F. Chashchin3.00912118122A. Lifanov1.361110511143LSep 15 · 14:35V. Hainiuk3.001111133A. Lifanov1.3649110LSep 15 · 12:35V. Kaganovych1.61911711113A. Lifanov2.2011911942LSep 10 · 19:55V. Chumak1.731111113A. Lifanov2.005840WSep 10 · 18:55A. Azarov3.255590A. Lifanov1.331111113WSep 10 · 17:25V. Sharpai1.6761111382A. Lifanov2.10119811113WSep 10 · 15:25D. Boltenkov2.1012119252A. Lifanov1.671071111113LSep 10 · 13:25I. Elfemov2.63111149113A. Lifanov1.4446111122LSep 1 · 19:55A. Lifanov2.20911111182V. Sharpai1.61117913113
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