TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13022720
Played Aug 28Finished
Vitalii Kobets
Home
1.30
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
8111131311711117
Anton Yakovenko
Away
3.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:00 and never touched — 69.9% is still 69.9%
Graded at full timeVitalii Kobets to win
69.9%
69.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVitalii Kobets above · Anton Yakovenko below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 93 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Vitalii Kobets at 69.9%
93 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Kobets 22–12 Anton Yakovenko Anton Yakovenko has won 12 of their 34 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:00What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Kobets
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
22-12 in 34
Kobets
Correct
gap of 10 in 34, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kobets 1509 vs Yakovenko 1421
Kobets
Correct
both rated, 88 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kobets 20% vs Yakovenko 60%
Yakovenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kobets 40% vs Yakovenko 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kobets -2 · Yakovenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% — Strong (leans Kobets) · live re-read · sealed at 70% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Yakovenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKobets 1.30 / Yakovenko 3.40
Signal prob.74% / 26%
Edge (Kobets)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13022720
Kobets1.30
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite58% won 89 of 153
Up 2–0, closes it88% 37 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it76% 57 of 75
Yakovenko3.40
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 65 of 164
Down 0–1, comes back26% 26 of 101
Down 0–2, comes back14% 9 of 64
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKobets9wins
AwayYakovenko1wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKobets leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKobets83.3%5 of 6
AwayYakovenko0%0 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kobets6Yakovenko4n = 10Kobets took 6 of 10
S2Kobets7Yakovenko3n = 10Kobets took 7 of 10
S3Kobets9Yakovenko1n = 10Kobets took 9 of 10
S4Kobets4Yakovenko2n = 6Kobets took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKobetsYakovenkoK − YBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.631.3+8.3per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKobetsYakovenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime458 / 894 vs 256 / 50151.2%51.1%458 / 894 vs 256 / 501Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.737.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KobetsKobets 1.30/Yakovenko 3.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.9%
Kobets · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kobets won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 28 · 03:05V. Kobets—811137113A. Yakovenko—113111172
WAug 24 · 19:55V. Kobets—1111153A. Yakovenko—28130
WAug 12 · 15:55V. Kobets—851111113A. Yakovenko—11117882
WJul 30 · 03:05V. Kobets—1111163A. Yakovenko—59140
WJun 10 · 15:25V. Kobets—91111113A. Yakovenko—114881
WMay 28 · 14:25V. Kobets—11711113A. Yakovenko—811841
WMay 27 · 14:25V. Kobets—1111113A. Yakovenko—8590
WApr 26 · 01:35V. Kobets—91111113A. Yakovenko—114761
LMar 16 · 23:35V. Kobets—118681A. Yakovenko—91111113
WFeb 23 · 15:55V. Kobets—1311113A. Yakovenko—11540
V. Kobets10
LAug 31 · 19:55V. Kobets4.332490K. Hrynenko1.201111113WAug 31 · 17:55Y. Sokoltsov2.20711491V. Kobets1.6111911113LAug 31 · 16:55V. Kobets1.731010111112S. Khandetskyi2.00121239113WAug 31 · 15:55D. Rehotun1.674770V. Kobets2.101111113LAug 31 · 14:25V. Kobets2.00471151O. Melashenko1.7311116113LAug 28 · 01:35V. Kobets1.449118101A. Peretiatko2.6311411123LAug 28 · 24:05V. Kobets2.386890H. Kulishov1.531111113WAug 27 · 22:35V. Kobets1.4091111113M. Skliar2.75115471LAug 27 · 21:05V. Kobets1.73961141D. Kim2.0011116113LAug 27 · 03:55V. Kobets2.107880H. Kulishov1.671111113
A. Yakovenko10
LSep 1 · 03:05A. Yakovenko3.401412241H. Kulishov1.30121411113LSep 1 · 01:35A. Yakovenko2.38591171M. Fomin1.5311117113WSep 1 · 24:05A. Yakovenko1.5711811123M. Skliar2.257119101WAug 31 · 22:35A. Yakovenko2.0041111113A. Peretiatko1.73118691LAug 31 · 21:05A. Yakovenko2.10119101362D. Kim1.677111211113LAug 28 · 02:05A. Yakovenko3.40191161H. Kulishov1.3011118113WAug 28 · 01:05A. Yakovenko2.001113118113D. Kim1.7381591192WAug 27 · 23:35A. Yakovenko2.101113113A. Peretiatko1.6761190WAug 27 · 21:35A. Yakovenko2.001111113M. Skliar1.737770LAug 24 · 19:55V. Kobets1.221111153A. Yakovenko4.0028130
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