TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13022707
Played Aug 28Finished
Vitalii Kobets
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9111148111012––
Andrii Peretiatko
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:02 and never touched — 65.3% is still 65.3%
Graded at full timeVitalii Kobets to win
65.3%
65.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingVitalii Kobets above · Andrii Peretiatko below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 76 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Vitalii Kobets at 65.3%
76 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Kobets 46–28 Andrii Peretiatko Andrii Peretiatko has won 28 of their 74 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:02What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Kobets
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
46-28 in 74
Kobets
Wrong
gap of 18 in 74, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kobets 1514 vs Peretiatko 1465
Kobets
Wrong
both rated, 49 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kobets 40% vs Peretiatko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kobets 50% vs Peretiatko 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kobets -1 · Peretiatko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Kobets)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kobets form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKobets 1.44 / Peretiatko 2.63
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Kobets)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13022707
Kobets1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 89 of 153
Up 2–0, closes it88% 37 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it76% 57 of 75
Peretiatko2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog38% won 85 of 226
Down 0–1, comes back21% 26 of 123
Down 0–2, comes back8% 6 of 73
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKobets10wins
AwayPeretiatko0wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKobets leads 10–0, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKobets100%8 of 8
AwayPeretiatkon = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kobets8Peretiatko2n = 10Kobets took 8 of 10
S2Kobets7Peretiatko3n = 10Kobets took 7 of 10
S3Kobets7Peretiatko3n = 10Kobets took 7 of 10
S4Kobets6Peretiatko0n = 6Kobets took 6 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKobetsPeretiatkoK − PBasisWins100+10in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match39.230.9+8.3per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKobetsPeretiatkoBasisWin rate · lifetime457 / 892 vs 352 / 75551.2%46.6%457 / 892 vs 352 / 755Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.738.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KobetsKobets 1.44/Peretiatko 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.3%
Kobets · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Peretiatko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 18 · 24:05V. Kobets—1117113A. Peretiatko—81520
WJul 1 · 21:05V. Kobets—1111113A. Peretiatko—7860
WJun 18 · 16:25V. Kobets—1111113A. Peretiatko—7670
WJun 7 · 21:35V. Kobets—11125113A. Peretiatko—6101141
WJun 4 · 03:05V. Kobets—11911113A. Peretiatko—911471
WMay 27 · 16:25V. Kobets—1512113A. Peretiatko—131080
WApr 25 · 21:05V. Kobets—116211113A. Peretiatko—91111892
WMar 20 · 05:05V. Kobets—31111113A. Peretiatko—115331
WMar 2 · 23:05V. Kobets—81111113A. Peretiatko—117881
WFeb 27 · 01:05V. Kobets—1171011113A. Peretiatko—91112772
V. Kobets10
LAug 31 · 19:55V. Kobets4.332490K. Hrynenko1.201111113WAug 31 · 17:55Y. Sokoltsov2.20711491V. Kobets1.6111911113LAug 31 · 16:55V. Kobets1.731010111112S. Khandetskyi2.00121239113WAug 31 · 15:55D. Rehotun1.674770V. Kobets2.101111113LAug 31 · 14:25V. Kobets2.00471151O. Melashenko1.7311116113WAug 28 · 03:05V. Kobets1.30811137113A. Yakovenko3.40113111172LAug 28 · 24:05V. Kobets2.386890H. Kulishov1.531111113WAug 27 · 22:35V. Kobets1.4091111113M. Skliar2.75115471LAug 27 · 21:05V. Kobets1.73961141D. Kim2.0011116113LAug 27 · 03:55V. Kobets2.107880H. Kulishov1.671111113
A. Peretiatko10
WSep 7 · 03:35M. Skliar2.759770A. Peretiatko1.401111113WSep 7 · 02:35D. Kim2.004101151A. Peretiatko1.7311129113WSep 7 · 01:05S. Pitsyk1.61135941A. Peretiatko2.20111111113WSep 6 · 23:05H. Kulishov1.44101151182A. Peretiatko2.63123117113WSep 6 · 21:05Y. Stepanchuk1.73911101192A. Peretiatko2.00112127113WSep 4 · 03:35A. Peretiatko1.7311611113D. Kim2.00711791LSep 4 · 01:35H. Kulishov1.44121188113A. Peretiatko2.63102111192WSep 4 · 24:35A. Peretiatko2.381111113S. Pitsyk1.539740LSep 3 · 23:35Y. Sokoltsov1.611111113A. Peretiatko2.204970WSep 3 · 22:05A. Peretiatko1.8381111113M. Fomin1.83111981
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