TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084023
Played Sep 6Finished
Yaroslav Stepanchuk
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
9111121012117911
Andrii Peretiatko
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:49 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Stepanchuk to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingYaroslav Stepanchuk above · Andrii Peretiatko below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 93 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Yaroslav Stepanchuk at 54.1%
93 points played in total.
H2H Yaroslav Stepanchuk 41–31 Andrii Peretiatko Andrii Peretiatko has won 31 of their 72 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:49What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Stepanchuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
41-31 in 72
Stepanchuk
Wrong
gap of 10 in 72, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stepanchuk 1462 vs Peretiatko 1478
Peretiatko
Correct
both rated, 17 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stepanchuk 40% vs Peretiatko 60%
Peretiatko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stepanchuk 30% vs Peretiatko 50%
Peretiatko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stepanchuk -1 · Peretiatko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Stepanchuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stepanchuk form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStepanchuk 1.73 / Peretiatko 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Stepanchuk)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13084023
Stepanchuk1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite53% won 95 of 180
Up 2–0, closes it88% 44 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it72% 64 of 89
Peretiatko2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 85 of 224
Down 0–1, comes back21% 26 of 123
Down 0–2, comes back8% 6 of 74
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStepanchuk5wins
AwayPeretiatko5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStepanchuk60%3 of 5
AwayPeretiatko60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stepanchuk5Peretiatko5n = 10split evenly
S2Stepanchuk6Peretiatko4n = 10Stepanchuk took 6 of 10
S3Stepanchuk3Peretiatko7n = 10Peretiatko took 7 of 10
S4Stepanchuk4Peretiatko2n = 6Stepanchuk took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricStepanchukPeretiatkoS − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.934.8+0.1per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStepanchukPeretiatkoBasisWin rate · lifetime299 / 624 vs 361 / 77247.9%46.8%299 / 624 vs 361 / 772Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StepanchukStepanchuk 1.73/Peretiatko 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Stepanchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Peretiatko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 31 · 01:35Y. Stepanchuk—9480A. Peretiatko—1111113
WAug 27 · 02:35Y. Stepanchuk—714411113A. Peretiatko—111211932
LAug 24 · 03:35Y. Stepanchuk—211781A. Peretiatko—11911113
WAug 18 · 20:25Y. Stepanchuk—1111113A. Peretiatko—7690
WAug 16 · 23:35Y. Stepanchuk—1111113A. Peretiatko—9610
LAug 14 · 03:35Y. Stepanchuk—11991392A. Peretiatko—9111111113
WAug 9 · 21:05Y. Stepanchuk—11118113A. Peretiatko—451151
WAug 5 · 21:05Y. Stepanchuk—111211113A. Peretiatko—1310681
LAug 4 · 02:35Y. Stepanchuk—7540A. Peretiatko—1111113
LJul 23 · 23:05Y. Stepanchuk—118871A. Peretiatko—81111113
Y. Stepanchuk10
LSep 7 · 03:05Y. Stepanchuk2.75912101142S. Pitsyk1.401110125113WSep 7 · 01:35Y. Stepanchuk1.6191111113M. Skliar2.20111961WSep 7 · 24:05Y. Stepanchuk2.1031111113H. Kulishov1.67118991LSep 6 · 22:35Y. Stepanchuk1.73861191D. Kim2.0011113113LSep 2 · 03:35Y. Stepanchuk2.1051161172D. Rehotun1.67119115113WSep 2 · 01:35O. Melashenko1.3611661192Y. Stepanchuk3.00711116113LSep 2 · 24:35Y. Stepanchuk5.503660K. Hrynenko1.131111113WSep 1 · 23:35S. Khandetskyi1.83101161132Y. Stepanchuk1.83129116113LSep 1 · 22:05Y. Stepanchuk3.251110381D. Derevynskyi1.3391211113LAug 31 · 03:05Y. Stepanchuk1.8381271162D. Kim1.831110119113
A. Peretiatko10
WSep 7 · 03:35M. Skliar2.759770A. Peretiatko1.401111113WSep 7 · 02:35D. Kim2.004101151A. Peretiatko1.7311129113WSep 7 · 01:05S. Pitsyk1.61135941A. Peretiatko2.20111111113WSep 6 · 23:05H. Kulishov1.44101151182A. Peretiatko2.63123117113WSep 4 · 03:35A. Peretiatko1.7311611113D. Kim2.00711791LSep 4 · 01:35H. Kulishov1.44121188113A. Peretiatko2.63102111192WSep 4 · 24:35A. Peretiatko2.381111113S. Pitsyk1.539740LSep 3 · 23:35Y. Sokoltsov1.611111113A. Peretiatko2.204970WSep 3 · 22:05A. Peretiatko1.8381111113M. Fomin1.83111981WSep 1 · 04:05M. Skliar2.751210781A. Peretiatko1.40101211113
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