TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13055594
Played Sep 2Finished
Yaroslav Stepanchuk
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
511119611115711
Dmytro Rehotun
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:25 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeDmytro Rehotun to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYaroslav Stepanchuk above · Dmytro Rehotun below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 87 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Dmytro Rehotun at 55.8%
87 points played in total.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:25What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Rehotun
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Stepanchuk 1475 vs Rehotun 1383
Stepanchuk
Wrong
both rated, 92 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stepanchuk 40% vs Rehotun 20%
Stepanchuk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stepanchuk 40% vs Rehotun 20%
Stepanchuk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stepanchuk +1 · Rehotun +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Rehotun)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rehotun form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStepanchuk 2.10 / Rehotun 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Rehotun)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13055594
Stepanchuk2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog37% won 44 of 118
Down 0–1, comes back20% 13 of 66
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 36
Rehotun1.67
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite50% won 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricStepanchukRehotunBasisWin rate · lifetime299 / 623 vs 205 / 41248%49.8%299 / 623 vs 205 / 412Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.736.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RehotunStepanchuk 2.10/Rehotun 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.8%
Rehotun · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Rehotun won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
Y. Stepanchuk10
LSep 7 · 03:05Y. Stepanchuk2.75912101142S. Pitsyk1.401110125113WSep 7 · 01:35Y. Stepanchuk1.6191111113M. Skliar2.20111961WSep 7 · 24:05Y. Stepanchuk2.1031111113H. Kulishov1.67118991LSep 6 · 22:35Y. Stepanchuk1.73861191D. Kim2.0011113113LSep 6 · 21:05Y. Stepanchuk1.73911101192A. Peretiatko2.00112127113WSep 2 · 01:35O. Melashenko1.3611661192Y. Stepanchuk3.00711116113LSep 2 · 24:35Y. Stepanchuk5.503660K. Hrynenko1.131111113WSep 1 · 23:35S. Khandetskyi1.83101161132Y. Stepanchuk1.83129116113LSep 1 · 22:05Y. Stepanchuk3.251110381D. Derevynskyi1.3391211113LAug 31 · 03:05Y. Stepanchuk1.8381271162D. Kim1.831110119113
D. Rehotun10
WSep 2 · 02:35K. Hrynenko1.6181290D. Rehotun2.201114113LSep 2 · 01:05S. Khandetskyi1.5711811123D. Rehotun2.256117101LSep 1 · 23:05D. Derevynskyi1.61111212123D. Rehotun2.2041014101LSep 1 · 21:05O. Melashenko1.571111123D. Rehotun2.2577100LAug 31 · 19:25Y. Sokoltsov2.101111113D. Rehotun1.676540LAug 31 · 18:25D. Rehotun1.91115991O. Melashenko1.8091111113LAug 31 · 17:25D. Rehotun1.736780K. Hrynenko2.001111113LAug 31 · 15:55D. Rehotun1.674770V. Kobets2.101111113LAug 31 · 13:55D. Rehotun1.8373120S. Khandetskyi1.831111143WMar 16 · 20:25P. Ishchyk—6980D. Rehotun—1111113
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