TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13049586
Played Aug 31Finished
Dmytro Rehotun
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611711811––––
Kostiantyn Hrynenko
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:45 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKostiantyn Hrynenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDmytro Rehotun above · Kostiantyn Hrynenko below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 54 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Kostiantyn Hrynenko at 54.0%
54 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Rehotun 31–21 Kostiantyn Hrynenko Kostiantyn Hrynenko has won 21 of their 52 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:45What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Rehotun
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
31-21 in 52
Rehotun
Wrong
gap of 10 in 52, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rehotun 1382 vs Hrynenko 1673
Hrynenko
Correct
both rated, 292 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rehotun 40% vs Hrynenko 80%
Hrynenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rehotun 40% vs Hrynenko 70%
Hrynenko
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rehotun -2 · Hrynenko +3
Hrynenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Rehotun) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hrynenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRehotun 1.73 / Hrynenko 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Rehotun)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13049586
Rehotun1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Hrynenko2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog43% won 153 of 357
Down 0–1, comes back26% 49 of 188
Down 0–2, comes back7% 7 of 100
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRehotun5wins
AwayHrynenko5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRehotun100%3 of 3
AwayHrynenko71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rehotun3Hrynenko7n = 10Hrynenko took 7 of 10
S2Rehotun4Hrynenko6n = 10Hrynenko took 6 of 10
S3Rehotun6Hrynenko4n = 10Rehotun took 6 of 10
S4Rehotun2Hrynenko1n = 3Rehotun took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricRehotunHrynenkoR − HBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match31.332.2−0.9per matchSweeps34−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRehotunHrynenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime204 / 408 vs 421 / 90350%46.6%204 / 408 vs 421 / 903Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.837.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RehotunRehotun 1.73/Hrynenko 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Rehotun · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Hrynenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 31 · 17:25D. Rehotun—6780K. Hrynenko—1111113
WMar 10 · 14:55D. Rehotun—91112113K. Hrynenko—1181051
LMar 3 · 14:25D. Rehotun—12860K. Hrynenko—1411113
WFeb 4 · 04:25D. Rehotun—971111113K. Hrynenko—11115822
LJan 27 · 24:55D. Rehotun—8690K. Hrynenko—1111113
WJan 6 · 16:05D. Rehotun—1111113K. Hrynenko—8670
LJan 5 · 22:25D. Rehotun—5250K. Hrynenko—1111113
WJan 1 · 07:05D. Rehotun—1111113K. Hrynenko—9650
LDec 31 · 24:35D. Rehotun—931481K. Hrynenko—111112113
WDec 24 · 02:55D. Rehotun—1117113K. Hrynenko—71580
D. Rehotun10
WSep 2 · 03:35Y. Stepanchuk2.1051161172D. Rehotun1.67119115113WSep 2 · 02:35K. Hrynenko1.6181290D. Rehotun2.201114113LSep 2 · 01:05S. Khandetskyi1.5711811123D. Rehotun2.256117101LSep 1 · 23:05D. Derevynskyi1.61111212123D. Rehotun2.2041014101LSep 1 · 21:05O. Melashenko1.571111123D. Rehotun2.2577100LAug 31 · 19:25Y. Sokoltsov2.101111113D. Rehotun1.676540LAug 31 · 18:25D. Rehotun1.91115991O. Melashenko1.8091111113LAug 31 · 15:55D. Rehotun1.674770V. Kobets2.101111113LAug 31 · 13:55D. Rehotun1.8373120S. Khandetskyi1.831111143WMar 16 · 20:25P. Ishchyk—6980D. Rehotun—1111113
K. Hrynenko10
WSep 6 · 03:35K. Hrynenko1.7311412113M. Marchuk2.005111061LSep 6 · 01:35V. Lobas1.5311113143K. Hrynenko2.384811121WSep 6 · 24:35K. Hrynenko1.671111113O. Melashenko2.105590WSep 5 · 23:35O. Gomilko1.61116581K. Hrynenko2.2071111113WSep 5 · 22:05K. Hrynenko2.201111113Y. Krol1.616990WSep 5 · 03:05Y. Krol1.571011461K. Hrynenko2.2512511113LSep 5 · 02:05K. Hrynenko2.508850V. Lobas1.501111113WSep 5 · 01:05K. Hrynenko2.5011411113D. Derevynskyi1.50511761LSep 4 · 23:35K. Hrynenko1.73471571O. Melashenko2.00111113113LSep 2 · 02:35K. Hrynenko1.6181290D. Rehotun2.201114113
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