TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084655
Played Sep 7Finished
Yaroslav Stepanchuk
Home
2.75
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
91112101012115411
Serhii Pitsyk
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:18 and never touched — 68.3% is still 68.3%
Graded at full timeSerhii Pitsyk to win
68.3%
68.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYaroslav Stepanchuk above · Serhii Pitsyk below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 95 set 5, 4-11 — our read held Serhii Pitsyk at 68.3%
95 points played in total.
H2H Yaroslav Stepanchuk 17–36 Serhii Pitsyk Yaroslav Stepanchuk has won 17 of their 53 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:18What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Pitsyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-36 in 53
Pitsyk
Correct
gap of 19 in 53, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stepanchuk 1459 vs Pitsyk 1592
Pitsyk
Correct
both rated, 133 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stepanchuk 40% vs Pitsyk 60%
Pitsyk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stepanchuk 40% vs Pitsyk 60%
Pitsyk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stepanchuk +2 · Pitsyk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Pitsyk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pitsyk form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStepanchuk 2.75 / Pitsyk 1.40
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Pitsyk)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13084655
Stepanchuk2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog37% won 44 of 120
Down 0–1, comes back19% 13 of 67
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 36
Pitsyk1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite60% won 120 of 199
Up 2–0, closes it97% 58 of 60
Up 1–0, closes it81% 86 of 106
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStepanchuk1wins
AwayPitsyk9wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPitsyk leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStepanchuk33.3%1 of 3
AwayPitsyk100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stepanchuk3Pitsyk7n = 10Pitsyk took 7 of 10
S2Stepanchuk3Pitsyk7n = 10Pitsyk took 7 of 10
S3Stepanchuk0Pitsyk10n = 10Pitsyk took 10 of 10
S4Stepanchuk2Pitsyk3n = 5Pitsyk took 3 of 5
S5Stepanchuk1Pitsyk2n = 3Pitsyk took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricStepanchukPitsykS − PBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match31.139.0−7.9per matchSweeps05−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStepanchukPitsykBasisWin rate · lifetime295 / 619 vs 318 / 58947.7%54%295 / 619 vs 318 / 589Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PitsykStepanchuk 2.75/Pitsyk 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.7%
Pitsyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Pitsyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 7 · 03:05Y. Stepanchuk—912101142S. Pitsyk—1110125113
LAug 30 · 21:05Y. Stepanchuk—118511112S. Pitsyk—511115133
LAug 25 · 17:25Y. Stepanchuk—5850S. Pitsyk—1111113
LAug 10 · 03:35Y. Stepanchuk—119991S. Pitsyk—61111113
LJul 27 · 01:35Y. Stepanchuk—77100S. Pitsyk—1111123
WJul 13 · 02:19Y. Stepanchuk—121266113S. Pitsyk—1010111152
LJul 13 · 24:05Y. Stepanchuk—613861S. Pitsyk—111111113
LJun 22 · 14:55Y. Stepanchuk—5940S. Pitsyk—1111113
LJun 17 · 02:35Y. Stepanchuk—4570S. Pitsyk—1111113
LJun 15 · 01:05Y. Stepanchuk—8980S. Pitsyk—1111113
Y. Stepanchuk10
WSep 7 · 01:35Y. Stepanchuk1.6191111113M. Skliar2.20111961WSep 7 · 24:05Y. Stepanchuk2.1031111113H. Kulishov1.67118991LSep 6 · 22:35Y. Stepanchuk1.73861191D. Kim2.0011113113LSep 6 · 21:05Y. Stepanchuk1.73911101192A. Peretiatko2.00112127113LSep 2 · 03:35Y. Stepanchuk2.1051161172D. Rehotun1.67119115113WSep 2 · 01:35O. Melashenko1.3611661192Y. Stepanchuk3.00711116113LSep 2 · 24:35Y. Stepanchuk5.503660K. Hrynenko1.131111113WSep 1 · 23:35S. Khandetskyi1.83101161132Y. Stepanchuk1.83129116113LSep 1 · 22:05Y. Stepanchuk3.251110381D. Derevynskyi1.3391211113LAug 31 · 03:05Y. Stepanchuk1.8381271162D. Kim1.831110119113
S. Pitsyk10
WSep 7 · 02:05S. Pitsyk1.911111113H. Kulishov1.806880LSep 7 · 01:05S. Pitsyk1.61135941A. Peretiatko2.20111111113WSep 6 · 23:35S. Pitsyk1.2891111113M. Skliar3.50119431LSep 6 · 21:35S. Pitsyk1.5013571162D. Kim2.501111118113WSep 4 · 04:05M. Fomin2.75712481S. Pitsyk1.40111011113WSep 4 · 02:35S. Pitsyk1.5011139113D. Kim2.507111151LSep 4 · 24:35A. Peretiatko2.381111113S. Pitsyk1.539740WSep 3 · 22:35H. Kulishov1.67711671S. Pitsyk2.1011811113LSep 3 · 21:35Y. Sokoltsov2.0011115113S. Pitsyk1.73691181WAug 31 · 03:35A. Peretiatko2.209811111S. Pitsyk1.6111114133
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