TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13055941
Played Sep 1Finished
Yaroslav Stepanchuk
Home
3.25
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1191012311811––
Dmytro Derevynskyi
Away
1.33
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:55 and never touched — 71.7% is still 71.7%
Graded at full timeDmytro Derevynskyi to win
71.7%
71.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYaroslav Stepanchuk above · Dmytro Derevynskyi below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 75 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Dmytro Derevynskyi at 71.7%
75 points played in total.
H2H Yaroslav Stepanchuk 1–2 Dmytro Derevynskyi Yaroslav Stepanchuk has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:55What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Derevynskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stepanchuk 1467 vs Derevynskyi 1506
Derevynskyi
Correct
both rated, 39 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stepanchuk 20% vs Derevynskyi 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stepanchuk 50% vs Derevynskyi 30%
Stepanchuk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stepanchuk -3 · Derevynskyi -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Derevynskyi) · live re-read · sealed at 72% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Derevynskyi form (20%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStepanchuk 3.25 / Derevynskyi 1.33
Signal prob.29% / 71%
Edge (Derevynskyi)-0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13055941
Stepanchuk3.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog37% won 44 of 118
Down 0–1, comes back20% 13 of 66
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 36
Derevynskyi1.33
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 196 of 339
Up 2–0, closes it90% 91 of 101
Up 1–0, closes it72% 139 of 194
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeStepanchuk1wins
AwayDerevynskyi2wins
1 of 3 to a deciderDerevynskyi leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stepanchuk2Derevynskyi1n = 3Stepanchuk took 2 of 3
S2Stepanchuk0Derevynskyi3n = 3Derevynskyi took 3 of 3
S3Stepanchuk1Derevynskyi2n = 3Derevynskyi took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricStepanchukDerevynskyiS − DBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match36.739.7−3.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStepanchukDerevynskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime297 / 619 vs 466 / 85348%54.6%297 / 619 vs 466 / 853Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.839.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DerevynskyiStepanchuk 3.25/Derevynskyi 1.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.9%
Derevynskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Derevynskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LAug 12 · 03:35Y. Stepanchuk—11951122D. Derevynskyi—811118113
WJul 29 · 14:55Y. Stepanchuk—11911123D. Derevynskyi—5118101
LJul 25 · 03:25Y. Stepanchuk—12980D. Derevynskyi—1411113
Y. Stepanchuk10
LSep 7 · 03:05Y. Stepanchuk2.75912101142S. Pitsyk1.401110125113WSep 7 · 01:35Y. Stepanchuk1.6191111113M. Skliar2.20111961WSep 7 · 24:05Y. Stepanchuk2.1031111113H. Kulishov1.67118991LSep 6 · 22:35Y. Stepanchuk1.73861191D. Kim2.0011113113LSep 6 · 21:05Y. Stepanchuk1.73911101192A. Peretiatko2.00112127113LSep 2 · 03:35Y. Stepanchuk2.1051161172D. Rehotun1.67119115113WSep 2 · 01:35O. Melashenko1.3611661192Y. Stepanchuk3.00711116113LSep 2 · 24:35Y. Stepanchuk5.503660K. Hrynenko1.131111113WSep 1 · 23:35S. Khandetskyi1.83101161132Y. Stepanchuk1.83129116113LAug 31 · 03:05Y. Stepanchuk1.8381271162D. Kim1.831110119113
D. Derevynskyi10
WSep 5 · 03:35O. Melashenko2.2578111172D. Derevynskyi1.57111119113WSep 5 · 02:35O. Gomilko1.50114981D. Derevynskyi2.5081111113LSep 5 · 01:05K. Hrynenko2.5011411113D. Derevynskyi1.50511761LSep 4 · 23:05V. Lobas1.50761111113D. Derevynskyi2.5011116772WSep 4 · 21:05Y. Krol2.639680D. Derevynskyi1.441111113WSep 4 · 04:25S. Abalmaz2.108760D. Derevynskyi1.671111113LSep 4 · 02:55D. Derevynskyi1.80108111132T. Ponomarenko1.91121148113WSep 4 · 24:55O. Naida2.103680D. Derevynskyi1.671111113WSep 3 · 22:55V. Khamurda1.91117681D. Derevynskyi1.8081111113WSep 3 · 21:55R. Gnoevoy2.0011891182D. Derevynskyi1.73511113113
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