TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13055653
Played Sep 1Finished
Serhii Khandetskyi
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1012119611116311
Yaroslav Stepanchuk
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:35 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Stepanchuk to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Khandetskyi above · Yaroslav Stepanchuk below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 3-11
Point 90 set 5, 3-11 — our read held Yaroslav Stepanchuk at 54.1%
90 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Khandetskyi 31–43 Yaroslav Stepanchuk Serhii Khandetskyi has won 31 of their 74 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:35What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Stepanchuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
31-43 in 74
Stepanchuk
Correct
gap of 12 in 74, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Khandetskyi 1530 vs Stepanchuk 1457
Khandetskyi
Wrong
both rated, 73 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Khandetskyi 40% vs Stepanchuk 20%
Khandetskyi
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Khandetskyi 40% vs Stepanchuk 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Khandetskyi -1 · Stepanchuk -4
Stepanchuk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Stepanchuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stepanchuk form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKhandetskyi 1.83 / Stepanchuk 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Stepanchuk)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13055653
Khandetskyi1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Stepanchuk1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKhandetskyi4wins
AwayStepanchuk6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderStepanchuk leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKhandetskyi57.1%4 of 7
AwayStepanchuk100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Khandetskyi7Stepanchuk3n = 10Khandetskyi took 7 of 10
S2Khandetskyi3Stepanchuk7n = 10Stepanchuk took 7 of 10
S3Khandetskyi3Stepanchuk7n = 10Stepanchuk took 7 of 10
S4Khandetskyi5Stepanchuk4n = 9Khandetskyi took 5 of 9
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKhandetskyiStepanchukK − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match34.838.6−3.8per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKhandetskyiStepanchukBasisWin rate · lifetime393 / 794 vs 297 / 62049.5%47.9%393 / 794 vs 297 / 620Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.938.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StepanchukKhandetskyi 1.83/Stepanchuk 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Stepanchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Stepanchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 29 · 16:25S. Khandetskyi—111111123Y. Stepanchuk—3913101
LJul 14 · 23:35S. Khandetskyi—741241Y. Stepanchuk—111110113
LJul 3 · 01:25S. Khandetskyi—125791Y. Stepanchuk—101111113
LJun 29 · 16:25S. Khandetskyi—115111472Y. Stepanchuk—8111312113
LJun 23 · 17:25S. Khandetskyi—137481Y. Stepanchuk—111111113
WJun 22 · 13:25S. Khandetskyi—11711113Y. Stepanchuk—911731
WJun 17 · 04:05S. Khandetskyi—11211113Y. Stepanchuk—811651
WJun 9 · 21:35S. Khandetskyi—11123113Y. Stepanchuk—4101181
LJun 4 · 16:55S. Khandetskyi—9440Y. Stepanchuk—1111113
LJun 3 · 03:05S. Khandetskyi—7111061Y. Stepanchuk—11612113
S. Khandetskyi10
WSep 2 · 03:05O. Melashenko2.10111176102S. Khandetskyi1.67771111123LSep 2 · 02:05S. Khandetskyi2.25111111962D. Derevynskyi1.57871311113WSep 2 · 01:05S. Khandetskyi1.5711811123D. Rehotun2.256117101LSep 1 · 21:35S. Khandetskyi2.501011118102K. Hrynenko1.50128811123WAug 31 · 20:25O. Melashenko2.007118121S. Khandetskyi1.7311711143LAug 31 · 18:55S. Khandetskyi2.2561030K. Hrynenko1.571112113WAug 31 · 16:55V. Kobets1.731010111112S. Khandetskyi2.00121239113LAug 31 · 14:55Y. Sokoltsov2.0011413103S. Khandetskyi1.738111181WAug 31 · 13:55D. Rehotun1.8373120S. Khandetskyi1.831111143WAug 27 · 03:25S. Khandetskyi1.911111113S. Pitsyk1.804850
Y. Stepanchuk10
LSep 7 · 03:05Y. Stepanchuk2.75912101142S. Pitsyk1.401110125113WSep 7 · 01:35Y. Stepanchuk1.6191111113M. Skliar2.20111961WSep 7 · 24:05Y. Stepanchuk2.1031111113H. Kulishov1.67118991LSep 6 · 22:35Y. Stepanchuk1.73861191D. Kim2.0011113113LSep 6 · 21:05Y. Stepanchuk1.73911101192A. Peretiatko2.00112127113LSep 2 · 03:35Y. Stepanchuk2.1051161172D. Rehotun1.67119115113WSep 2 · 01:35O. Melashenko1.3611661192Y. Stepanchuk3.00711116113LSep 2 · 24:35Y. Stepanchuk5.503660K. Hrynenko1.131111113LSep 1 · 22:05Y. Stepanchuk3.251110381D. Derevynskyi1.3391211113LAug 31 · 03:05Y. Stepanchuk1.8381271162D. Kim1.831110119113
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