TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13049829
Played Aug 31Finished
Vitalii Kobets
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
10121012113119111
Serhii Khandetskyi
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:43 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVitalii Kobets to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongpick shipped
How it is goingVitalii Kobets above · Serhii Khandetskyi below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 1-11
Point 90 set 5, 1-11 — our read held Vitalii Kobets at 54.0%
90 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Kobets 18–25 Serhii Khandetskyi Vitalii Kobets has won 18 of their 43 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:43What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kobets
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-25 in 43
Khandetskyi
Correct
gap of 7 in 43, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kobets 1508 vs Khandetskyi 1511
Khandetskyi
Correct
both rated, 2 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kobets 40% vs Khandetskyi 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kobets 40% vs Khandetskyi 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kobets +1 · Khandetskyi -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kobets)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kobets form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKobets 1.73 / Khandetskyi 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kobets)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13049829
Kobets1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite58% won 87 of 149
Up 2–0, closes it88% 36 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it76% 55 of 72
Khandetskyi2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog51% won 101 of 197
Down 0–1, comes back28% 28 of 99
Down 0–2, comes back11% 5 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKobets5wins
AwayKhandetskyi5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKobets100%4 of 4
AwayKhandetskyi83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kobets4Khandetskyi6n = 10Khandetskyi took 6 of 10
S2Kobets7Khandetskyi3n = 10Kobets took 7 of 10
S3Kobets5Khandetskyi5n = 10split evenly
S4Kobets3Khandetskyi2n = 5Kobets took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKobetsKhandetskyiKobets − KhandetskyiBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.430.7+3.7per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKobetsKhandetskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime455 / 886 vs 394 / 79551.4%49.6%455 / 886 vs 394 / 795Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.736.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KobetsKobets 1.73/Khandetskyi 2.00
Miss
What we said
54%
Kobets · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Khandetskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 27 · 01:55V. Kobets—1111113S. Khandetskyi—5220
WAug 24 · 17:55V. Kobets—1111113S. Khandetskyi—9750
WAug 19 · 21:05V. Kobets—11118113S. Khandetskyi—941151
LAug 12 · 14:25V. Kobets—71291172S. Khandetskyi—1110116113
LAug 12 · 02:05V. Kobets—8990S. Khandetskyi—1111113
WAug 4 · 16:55V. Kobets—81111113S. Khandetskyi—114731
LAug 3 · 18:25V. Kobets—1011851S. Khandetskyi—12711113
LJul 14 · 22:35V. Kobets—671191S. Khandetskyi—11116113
WJul 6 · 18:25V. Kobets—1812113S. Khandetskyi—161020
LJul 2 · 21:25V. Kobets—2860S. Khandetskyi—1111113
V. Kobets10
LAug 31 · 19:55V. Kobets4.332490K. Hrynenko1.201111113WAug 31 · 17:55Y. Sokoltsov2.20711491V. Kobets1.6111911113WAug 31 · 15:55D. Rehotun1.674770V. Kobets2.101111113LAug 31 · 14:25V. Kobets2.00471151O. Melashenko1.7311116113WAug 28 · 03:05V. Kobets1.30811137113A. Yakovenko3.40113111172LAug 28 · 01:35V. Kobets1.449118101A. Peretiatko2.6311411123LAug 28 · 24:05V. Kobets2.386890H. Kulishov1.531111113WAug 27 · 22:35V. Kobets1.4091111113M. Skliar2.75115471LAug 27 · 21:05V. Kobets1.73961141D. Kim2.0011116113LAug 27 · 03:55V. Kobets2.107880H. Kulishov1.671111113
S. Khandetskyi10
WSep 2 · 03:05O. Melashenko2.10111176102S. Khandetskyi1.67771111123LSep 2 · 02:05S. Khandetskyi2.25111111962D. Derevynskyi1.57871311113WSep 2 · 01:05S. Khandetskyi1.5711811123D. Rehotun2.256117101LSep 1 · 23:35S. Khandetskyi1.83101161132Y. Stepanchuk1.83129116113LSep 1 · 21:35S. Khandetskyi2.501011118102K. Hrynenko1.50128811123WAug 31 · 20:25O. Melashenko2.007118121S. Khandetskyi1.7311711143LAug 31 · 18:55S. Khandetskyi2.2561030K. Hrynenko1.571112113LAug 31 · 14:55Y. Sokoltsov2.0011413103S. Khandetskyi1.738111181WAug 31 · 13:55D. Rehotun1.8373120S. Khandetskyi1.831111143WAug 27 · 03:25S. Khandetskyi1.911111113S. Pitsyk1.804850
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