TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13049726
Played Aug 31Finished
Vitalii Kobets
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
411711116511––
Oleksandr Melashenko
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:24 and never touched — 55.3% is still 55.3%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Melashenko to win
55.3%
55.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVitalii Kobets above · Oleksandr Melashenko below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 66 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Oleksandr Melashenko at 55.3%
66 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Kobets 1–7 Oleksandr Melashenko Vitalii Kobets has won 1 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:24What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Melashenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-7 in 8
Melashenko
Correct
gap of 6 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kobets 1509 vs Melashenko 1518
Melashenko
Correct
both rated, 9 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kobets 40% vs Melashenko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kobets 40% vs Melashenko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kobets +1 · Melashenko +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Melashenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melashenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKobets 2.00 / Melashenko 1.73
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Melashenko)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13049726
Kobets2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog46% won 78 of 168
Down 0–1, comes back27% 25 of 92
Down 0–2, comes back14% 7 of 50
Melashenko1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite56% won 89 of 160
Up 2–0, closes it95% 35 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it74% 55 of 74
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeKobets1wins
AwayMelashenko7wins
3 of 8 to a deciderMelashenko leads 7–1, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKobetsn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMelashenko100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kobets2Melashenko6n = 8Melashenko took 6 of 8
S2Kobets5Melashenko3n = 8Kobets took 5 of 8
S3Kobets5Melashenko3n = 8Kobets took 5 of 8
S4Kobets1Melashenko6n = 7Melashenko took 6 of 7
S5Kobets0Melashenko3n = 3Melashenko took 3 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away338%
1–3Four sets, away450%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricKobetsMelashenkoK − MBasisWins17−6in 8 meetingsFirst set26−4of 8Avg pointsper match37.141.5−4.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKobetsMelashenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime454 / 884 vs 430 / 84651.4%50.8%454 / 884 vs 430 / 846Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.738.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MelashenkoKobets 2.00/Melashenko 1.73
Hit
What we said
55.3%
Melashenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Melashenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LAug 3 · 13:55V. Kobets—811781O. Melashenko—11711113
WJul 22 · 23:35V. Kobets—1211113O. Melashenko—10890
LJun 10 · 16:25V. Kobets—1051191O. Melashenko—12114113
LDec 28 · 22:05V. Kobets—81111732O. Melashenko—118811113
LNov 24 · 02:05V. Kobets—81171192O. Melashenko—119117113
LNov 16 · 22:05V. Kobets—125971O. Melashenko—101111113
LOct 5 · 23:35V. Kobets—81111852O. Melashenko—114711113
LAug 14 · 21:05V. Kobets—881151O. Melashenko—11119113
V. Kobets10
LAug 31 · 19:55V. Kobets4.332490K. Hrynenko1.201111113WAug 31 · 17:55Y. Sokoltsov2.20711491V. Kobets1.6111911113LAug 31 · 16:55V. Kobets1.731010111112S. Khandetskyi2.00121239113WAug 31 · 15:55D. Rehotun1.674770V. Kobets2.101111113WAug 28 · 03:05V. Kobets1.30811137113A. Yakovenko3.40113111172LAug 28 · 01:35V. Kobets1.449118101A. Peretiatko2.6311411123LAug 28 · 24:05V. Kobets2.386890H. Kulishov1.531111113WAug 27 · 22:35V. Kobets1.4091111113M. Skliar2.75115471LAug 27 · 21:05V. Kobets1.73961141D. Kim2.0011116113LAug 27 · 03:55V. Kobets2.107880H. Kulishov1.671111113
O. Melashenko10
LSep 6 · 04:05Y. Krol1.28871111113O. Melashenko3.5011117872WSep 6 · 02:35O. Melashenko1.6781111113M. Marchuk2.10116771LSep 6 · 24:35K. Hrynenko1.671111113O. Melashenko2.105590WSep 5 · 22:35V. Lobas1.3661080O. Melashenko3.001112113WSep 5 · 21:35O. Gomilko1.835780O. Melashenko1.831111113LSep 5 · 03:35O. Melashenko2.2578111172D. Derevynskyi1.57111119113LSep 5 · 01:35Y. Krol1.2861111123O. Melashenko3.501167101WSep 5 · 24:35O. Melashenko1.9114116113O. Gomilko1.801271141WSep 4 · 23:35K. Hrynenko1.73471571O. Melashenko2.00111113113WSep 4 · 22:05O. Melashenko3.2591211123V. Lobas1.3311109101
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