TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13049563
Played Aug 31Finished
Oleksandr Melashenko
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7111178111214––
Serhii Khandetskyi
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:44 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSerhii Khandetskyi to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Melashenko above · Serhii Khandetskyi below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 12-14
Point 81 set 4, 12-14 — our read held Serhii Khandetskyi at 54.0%
81 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Melashenko 23–34 Serhii Khandetskyi Oleksandr Melashenko has won 23 of their 57 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:44What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Khandetskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-34 in 57
Khandetskyi
Correct
gap of 11 in 57, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melashenko 1534 vs Khandetskyi 1513
Melashenko
Wrong
both rated, 21 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melashenko 80% vs Khandetskyi 60%
Melashenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melashenko 50% vs Khandetskyi 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Melashenko +2 · Khandetskyi -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Khandetskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melashenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelashenko 2.00 / Khandetskyi 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Khandetskyi)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13049563
Melashenko2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog39% won 107 of 276
Down 0–1, comes back22% 39 of 174
Down 0–2, comes back7% 6 of 92
Khandetskyi1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite48% won 61 of 128
Up 2–0, closes it91% 31 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it69% 45 of 65
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMelashenko6wins
AwayKhandetskyi4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMelashenko leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelashenko66.7%4 of 6
AwayKhandetskyi50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melashenko6Khandetskyi4n = 10Melashenko took 6 of 10
S2Melashenko6Khandetskyi4n = 10Melashenko took 6 of 10
S3Melashenko5Khandetskyi5n = 10split evenly
S4Melashenko3Khandetskyi3n = 6split evenly
S5Melashenko2Khandetskyi1n = 3Melashenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMelashenkoKhandetskyiM − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.935.5+1.4per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelashenkoKhandetskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime433 / 850 vs 395 / 79750.9%49.6%433 / 850 vs 395 / 797Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.436.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KhandetskyiMelashenko 2.00/Khandetskyi 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Khandetskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Khandetskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 18 · 15:55O. Melashenko—1311113S. Khandetskyi—11890
WAug 17 · 16:55O. Melashenko—11119113S. Khandetskyi—661191
LAug 5 · 13:55O. Melashenko—7390S. Khandetskyi—1111113
WAug 3 · 20:25O. Melashenko—611118133S. Khandetskyi—117211112
LJul 29 · 18:25O. Melashenko—512891S. Khandetskyi—111011113
WJun 10 · 14:55O. Melashenko—491111113S. Khandetskyi—11118992
LJun 10 · 02:04O. Melashenko—11581172S. Khandetskyi—711118113
WJun 10 · 01:05O. Melashenko—1111153S. Khandetskyi—57130
WFeb 20 · 24:25O. Melashenko—1111113S. Khandetskyi—4660
LFeb 17 · 20:25O. Melashenko—114891S. Khandetskyi—81111103
O. Melashenko10
LSep 6 · 04:05Y. Krol1.28871111113O. Melashenko3.5011117872WSep 6 · 02:35O. Melashenko1.6781111113M. Marchuk2.10116771LSep 6 · 24:35K. Hrynenko1.671111113O. Melashenko2.105590WSep 5 · 22:35V. Lobas1.3661080O. Melashenko3.001112113WSep 5 · 21:35O. Gomilko1.835780O. Melashenko1.831111113LSep 5 · 03:35O. Melashenko2.2578111172D. Derevynskyi1.57111119113LSep 5 · 01:35Y. Krol1.2861111123O. Melashenko3.501167101WSep 5 · 24:35O. Melashenko1.9114116113O. Gomilko1.801271141WSep 4 · 23:35K. Hrynenko1.73471571O. Melashenko2.00111113113WSep 4 · 22:05O. Melashenko3.2591211123V. Lobas1.3311109101
S. Khandetskyi10
WSep 2 · 03:05O. Melashenko2.10111176102S. Khandetskyi1.67771111123LSep 2 · 02:05S. Khandetskyi2.25111111962D. Derevynskyi1.57871311113WSep 2 · 01:05S. Khandetskyi1.5711811123D. Rehotun2.256117101LSep 1 · 23:35S. Khandetskyi1.83101161132Y. Stepanchuk1.83129116113LSep 1 · 21:35S. Khandetskyi2.501011118102K. Hrynenko1.50128811123LAug 31 · 18:55S. Khandetskyi2.2561030K. Hrynenko1.571112113WAug 31 · 16:55V. Kobets1.731010111112S. Khandetskyi2.00121239113LAug 31 · 14:55Y. Sokoltsov2.0011413103S. Khandetskyi1.738111181WAug 31 · 13:55D. Rehotun1.8373120S. Khandetskyi1.831111143WAug 27 · 03:25S. Khandetskyi1.911111113S. Pitsyk1.804850
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