TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13055784
Played Sep 2Finished
Oleksandr Melashenko
Home
1.36
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
117611611116911
Yaroslav Stepanchuk
Away
3.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:05 and never touched — 73.1% is still 73.1%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Melashenko to win
73.1%
73.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOleksandr Melashenko above · Yaroslav Stepanchuk below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 89 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Oleksandr Melashenko at 73.1%
89 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Melashenko 37–16 Yaroslav Stepanchuk Yaroslav Stepanchuk has won 16 of their 53 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:05What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Melashenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
37-16 in 53
Melashenko
Wrong
gap of 21 in 53, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melashenko 1500 vs Stepanchuk 1463
Melashenko
Wrong
both rated, 37 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melashenko 40% vs Stepanchuk 20%
Melashenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melashenko 60% vs Stepanchuk 40%
Melashenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Melashenko -2 · Stepanchuk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Melashenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stepanchuk form (20%) is below what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelashenko 1.36 / Stepanchuk 3.00
Signal prob.73% / 27%
Edge (Melashenko)+4.3pp
Setka Cup · #13055784
Melashenko1.36
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite56% won 92 of 163
Up 2–0, closes it95% 36 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it75% 56 of 75
Stepanchuk3.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog37% won 44 of 118
Down 0–1, comes back20% 13 of 66
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMelashenko10wins
AwayStepanchuk0wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMelashenko leads 10–0, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelashenko100%7 of 7
AwayStepanchuk0%0 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melashenko7Stepanchuk3n = 10Melashenko took 7 of 10
S2Melashenko9Stepanchuk1n = 10Melashenko took 9 of 10
S3Melashenko6Stepanchuk4n = 10Melashenko took 6 of 10
S4Melashenko5Stepanchuk2n = 7Melashenko took 5 of 7
S5Melashenko3Stepanchuk0n = 3Melashenko took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMelashenkoStepanchukM − SBasisWins100+10in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.033.7+7.3per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelashenkoStepanchukBasisWin rate · lifetime431 / 849 vs 298 / 62250.8%47.9%431 / 849 vs 298 / 622Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MelashenkoMelashenko 1.36/Stepanchuk 3.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
73.1%
Melashenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Stepanchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 25 · 13:25O. Melashenko—11114133Y. Stepanchuk—5711111
WAug 18 · 13:55O. Melashenko—11115113Y. Stepanchuk—781171
WJul 29 · 19:25O. Melashenko—11511113Y. Stepanchuk—311551
WJun 9 · 23:35O. Melashenko—1111113Y. Stepanchuk—9790
WFeb 16 · 04:55O. Melashenko—1111113Y. Stepanchuk—7780
WFeb 9 · 02:05O. Melashenko—611117113Y. Stepanchuk—11561182
WJan 26 · 22:05O. Melashenko—121211113Y. Stepanchuk—10101361
WDec 31 · 23:25O. Melashenko—1211113Y. Stepanchuk—10890
WDec 10 · 24:35O. Melashenko—1311711113Y. Stepanchuk—15811762
WNov 26 · 22:35O. Melashenko—811119113Y. Stepanchuk—11791172
O. Melashenko10
LSep 6 · 04:05Y. Krol1.28871111113O. Melashenko3.5011117872WSep 6 · 02:35O. Melashenko1.6781111113M. Marchuk2.10116771LSep 6 · 24:35K. Hrynenko1.671111113O. Melashenko2.105590WSep 5 · 22:35V. Lobas1.3661080O. Melashenko3.001112113WSep 5 · 21:35O. Gomilko1.835780O. Melashenko1.831111113LSep 5 · 03:35O. Melashenko2.2578111172D. Derevynskyi1.57111119113LSep 5 · 01:35Y. Krol1.2861111123O. Melashenko3.501167101WSep 5 · 24:35O. Melashenko1.9114116113O. Gomilko1.801271141WSep 4 · 23:35K. Hrynenko1.73471571O. Melashenko2.00111113113WSep 4 · 22:05O. Melashenko3.2591211123V. Lobas1.3311109101
Y. Stepanchuk10
LSep 7 · 03:05Y. Stepanchuk2.75912101142S. Pitsyk1.401110125113WSep 7 · 01:35Y. Stepanchuk1.6191111113M. Skliar2.20111961WSep 7 · 24:05Y. Stepanchuk2.1031111113H. Kulishov1.67118991LSep 6 · 22:35Y. Stepanchuk1.73861191D. Kim2.0011113113LSep 6 · 21:05Y. Stepanchuk1.73911101192A. Peretiatko2.00112127113LSep 2 · 03:35Y. Stepanchuk2.1051161172D. Rehotun1.67119115113LSep 2 · 24:35Y. Stepanchuk5.503660K. Hrynenko1.131111113WSep 1 · 23:35S. Khandetskyi1.83101161132Y. Stepanchuk1.83129116113LSep 1 · 22:05Y. Stepanchuk3.251110381D. Derevynskyi1.3391211113LAug 31 · 03:05Y. Stepanchuk1.8381271162D. Kim1.831110119113
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