TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13044187
Played Aug 31Finished
Yaroslav Stepanchuk
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
8111210711119611
Dmitriy Kim
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:45 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Stepanchuk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingYaroslav Stepanchuk above · Dmitriy Kim below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 96 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Yaroslav Stepanchuk at 54.0%
96 points played in total.
H2H Yaroslav Stepanchuk 52–51 Dmitriy Kim Dmitriy Kim has won 51 of their 103 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:45What took a side0 for · 2 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Kim
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
52-51 in 103
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stepanchuk 1467 vs Kim 1513
Kim
Correct
both rated, 46 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stepanchuk 40% vs Kim 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stepanchuk 60% vs Kim 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stepanchuk -2 · Kim +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kim) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kim form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStepanchuk 1.83 / Kim 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kim)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13044187
Stepanchuk1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Kim1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStepanchuk3wins
AwayKim7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKim leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStepanchuk60%3 of 5
AwayKim100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stepanchuk5Kim5n = 10split evenly
S2Stepanchuk2Kim8n = 10Kim took 8 of 10
S3Stepanchuk4Kim6n = 10Kim took 6 of 10
S4Stepanchuk3Kim3n = 6split evenly
S5Stepanchuk1Kim2n = 3Kim took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricStepanchukKimS − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.737.5−2.8per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStepanchukKimBasisWin rate · lifetime298 / 624 vs 482 / 100747.8%47.9%298 / 624 vs 482 / 1007Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KimStepanchuk 1.83/Kim 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kim · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kim won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 23 · 23:35Y. Stepanchuk—11781172D. Kim—511115113
LAug 19 · 15:55Y. Stepanchuk—8670D. Kim—1111113
WAug 17 · 01:05Y. Stepanchuk—119711113D. Kim—61111772
LAug 14 · 24:35Y. Stepanchuk—1081131D. Kim—12117113
LAug 10 · 01:05Y. Stepanchuk—11114972D. Kim—571111113
LAug 5 · 22:35Y. Stepanchuk—6880D. Kim—1111113
LAug 4 · 04:05Y. Stepanchuk—37110D. Kim—1111133
WJul 31 · 01:33Y. Stepanchuk—11911143D. Kim—5118121
WJul 26 · 22:05Y. Stepanchuk—1211113D. Kim—10590
LJul 24 · 03:35Y. Stepanchuk—7711121D. Kim—11117143
Y. Stepanchuk10
LSep 7 · 03:05Y. Stepanchuk2.75912101142S. Pitsyk1.401110125113WSep 7 · 01:35Y. Stepanchuk1.6191111113M. Skliar2.20111961WSep 7 · 24:05Y. Stepanchuk2.1031111113H. Kulishov1.67118991LSep 6 · 22:35Y. Stepanchuk1.73861191D. Kim2.0011113113LSep 6 · 21:05Y. Stepanchuk1.73911101192A. Peretiatko2.00112127113LSep 2 · 03:35Y. Stepanchuk2.1051161172D. Rehotun1.67119115113WSep 2 · 01:35O. Melashenko1.3611661192Y. Stepanchuk3.00711116113LSep 2 · 24:35Y. Stepanchuk5.503660K. Hrynenko1.131111113WSep 1 · 23:35S. Khandetskyi1.83101161132Y. Stepanchuk1.83129116113LSep 1 · 22:05Y. Stepanchuk3.251110381D. Derevynskyi1.3391211113
D. Kim10
LSep 7 · 04:05H. Kulishov1.8011119153D. Kim1.916411131LSep 7 · 02:35D. Kim2.004101151A. Peretiatko1.7311129113WSep 7 · 24:35M. Skliar2.201081281D. Kim1.61121110113WSep 6 · 22:35Y. Stepanchuk1.73861191D. Kim2.0011113113WSep 6 · 21:35S. Pitsyk1.5013571162D. Kim2.501111118113LSep 4 · 03:35A. Peretiatko1.7311611113D. Kim2.00711791LSep 4 · 02:35S. Pitsyk1.5011139113D. Kim2.507111151LSep 4 · 01:05Y. Sokoltsov1.801111123D. Kim1.9164100LSep 3 · 23:05M. Fomin2.25146119123D. Kim1.571211911102WSep 3 · 21:05H. Kulishov1.80117981D. Kim1.9181111113
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