TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13131282
Played Sep 15Finished
Vitalii Kaganovych
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
511118911811––
Fedir Chashchin
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:29 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeVitalii Kaganovych to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVitalii Kaganovych above · Fedir Chashchin below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 74 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Vitalii Kaganovych at 57.7%
74 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Kaganovych 11–10 Fedir Chashchin Fedir Chashchin has won 10 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:29What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kaganovych
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-10 in 21
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kaganovych 1467 vs Chashchin 1441
Kaganovych
Wrong
both rated, 27 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kaganovych 80% vs Chashchin 60%
Kaganovych
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kaganovych 60% vs Chashchin 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kaganovych -1 · Chashchin +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Kaganovych)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chashchin form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKaganovych 1.61 / Chashchin 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Kaganovych)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13131282
Kaganovych1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite64% won 123 of 191
Up 2–0, closes it96% 63 of 66
Up 1–0, closes it83% 86 of 104
Chashchin2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 17 of 44
Down 0–1, comes back27% 7 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKaganovych6wins
AwayChashchin4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKaganovych leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKaganovych80%4 of 5
AwayChashchin60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kaganovych5Chashchin5n = 10split evenly
S2Kaganovych6Chashchin4n = 10Kaganovych took 6 of 10
S3Kaganovych1Chashchin9n = 10Chashchin took 9 of 10
S4Kaganovych7Chashchin2n = 9Kaganovych took 7 of 9
S5Kaganovych3Chashchin1n = 4Kaganovych took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKaganovychChashchinK − CBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.738.2+4.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKaganovychChashchinBasisWin rate · lifetime342 / 551 vs 100 / 19562.1%51.3%342 / 551 vs 100 / 195Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KaganovychKaganovych 1.61/Chashchin 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.7%
Kaganovych · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Chashchin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 7 · 13:05V. Kaganovych521191011113F. Chashchin4071112462
LAug 31 · 13:05V. Kaganovych4371161182F. Chashchin45117115113
LAug 11 · 17:05V. Kaganovych399111091F. Chashchin4111712113
LJul 13 · 13:25V. Kaganovych36119881F. Chashchin4181111113
WJun 15 · 17:55V. Kaganovych4111118113F. Chashchin31741191
WJun 8 · 12:35V. Kaganovych561181214113F. Chashchin44511141222
WMay 13 · 17:05V. Kaganovych4211119113F. Chashchin27451171
WMar 3 · 15:05V. Kaganovych51811911123F. Chashchin47118117102
LFeb 23 · 17:35V. Kaganovych2789100F. Chashchin341111123
WJan 28 · 15:35V. Kaganovych4071111113F. Chashchin32116871
V. Kaganovych10
LSep 15 · 17:05V. Kaganovych2.003880A. Yakovenko1.731111113WSep 15 · 15:35V. Kaganovych1.5011911113V. Hainiuk2.50811891WSep 15 · 14:05V. Kaganovych1.5711511113I. Elfemov2.25911871WSep 15 · 12:35V. Kaganovych1.61911711113A. Lifanov2.2011911942WSep 14 · 19:35V. Hainiuk2.501071261V. Kaganovych1.50121110113WSep 14 · 18:05V. Kaganovych1.367111011113V. Sydorenko3.0011712372LSep 14 · 16:05V. Sharpai2.001112113V. Kaganovych1.7371060LSep 14 · 14:05O. Korobov1.611111123V. Kaganovych2.2069100WSep 14 · 13:05I. Elfemov2.2511871192V. Kaganovych1.57711116113LSep 11 · 19:35V. Kaganovych1.4013138101V. Sydorenko2.75151111123
F. Chashchin10
WSep 15 · 17:35F. Chashchin1.83111410113V. Hainiuk1.835121231LSep 15 · 16:35F. Chashchin3.00912118122A. Lifanov1.361110511143WSep 15 · 15:05F. Chashchin3.4081111113A. Yakovenko1.30119481LSep 15 · 13:05F. Chashchin1.6110760I. Elfemov2.201211113WSep 7 · 18:35O. Korobov1.83117871F. Chashchin1.8371111113WSep 7 · 17:35F. Chashchin2.10661211113V. Hainiuk1.67111110692LSep 7 · 16:35F. Chashchin2.75115971V. Sharpai1.4031111113WSep 7 · 15:05F. Chashchin1.611111103113V. Chumak2.2085121192LSep 7 · 13:05F. Chashchin2.2571112462V. Kaganovych1.571191011113LAug 31 · 19:35V. Hainiuk1.8071111113F. Chashchin1.91116741
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