TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13131315
Played Sep 15Finished
Vitalii Kaganovych
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118911118119––
Volodymyr Hainiuk
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:46 and never touched — 63.7% is still 63.7%
Graded at full timeVitalii Kaganovych to win
63.7%
63.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVitalii Kaganovych above · Volodymyr Hainiuk below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 78 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Vitalii Kaganovych at 63.7%
78 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Kaganovych 67–45 Volodymyr Hainiuk Volodymyr Hainiuk has won 45 of their 112 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:46What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Kaganovych
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
67-45 in 112
Kaganovych
Correct
gap of 22 in 112, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kaganovych 1473 vs Hainiuk 1443
Kaganovych
Correct
both rated, 30 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kaganovych 80% vs Hainiuk 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kaganovych 60% vs Hainiuk 90%
Hainiuk
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kaganovych +4 · Hainiuk +2
Kaganovych
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Kaganovych)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hainiuk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKaganovych 1.50 / Hainiuk 2.50
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Kaganovych)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13131315
Kaganovych1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite64% won 123 of 191
Up 2–0, closes it96% 63 of 66
Up 1–0, closes it83% 86 of 104
Hainiuk2.50
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog37% won 44 of 119
Down 0–1, comes back19% 13 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKaganovych8wins
AwayHainiuk2wins
1 of 10 to a deciderKaganovych leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKaganovych100%5 of 5
AwayHainiuk40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kaganovych5Hainiuk5n = 10split evenly
S2Kaganovych8Hainiuk2n = 10Kaganovych took 8 of 10
S3Kaganovych4Hainiuk6n = 10Hainiuk took 6 of 10
S4Kaganovych7Hainiuk1n = 8Kaganovych took 7 of 8
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home660%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKaganovychHainiukK − HBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.032.9+5.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKaganovychHainiukBasisWin rate · lifetime342 / 550 vs 368 / 67462.2%54.6%342 / 550 vs 368 / 674Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.737.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KaganovychKaganovych 1.50/Hainiuk 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.7%
Kaganovych · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kaganovych won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 14 · 19:35V. Kaganovych44121110113V. Hainiuk351071261
LSep 8 · 15:35V. Kaganovych238870V. Hainiuk331111113
WSep 7 · 19:35V. Kaganovych3961111113V. Hainiuk31118391
WSep 1 · 18:25V. Kaganovych41411411113V. Hainiuk3911411492
WAug 31 · 17:35V. Kaganovych4171211113V. Hainiuk361110781
WAug 25 · 17:35V. Kaganovych371511113V. Hainiuk2313910
WAug 24 · 14:35V. Kaganovych4111118113V. Hainiuk29641181
LAug 18 · 19:35V. Kaganovych337114111V. Hainiuk4011511133
WAug 17 · 15:35V. Kaganovych4011126113V. Hainiuk327101141
WAug 11 · 15:35V. Kaganovych4111811113V. Hainiuk31711581
V. Kaganovych10
WSep 15 · 14:05V. Kaganovych1.5711511113I. Elfemov2.25911871WSep 15 · 12:35V. Kaganovych1.61911711113A. Lifanov2.2011911942WSep 14 · 19:35V. Hainiuk2.501071261V. Kaganovych1.50121110113WSep 14 · 18:05V. Kaganovych1.367111011113V. Sydorenko3.0011712372LSep 14 · 16:05V. Sharpai2.001112113V. Kaganovych1.7371060LSep 14 · 14:05O. Korobov1.611111123V. Kaganovych2.2069100WSep 14 · 13:05I. Elfemov2.2511871192V. Kaganovych1.57711116113LSep 11 · 19:35V. Kaganovych1.4013138101V. Sydorenko2.75151111123WSep 11 · 17:35Y. Bielokon3.409260V. Kaganovych1.301111113LSep 11 · 15:33I. Elfemov2.5011611133V. Kaganovych1.508117111
V. Hainiuk10
WSep 15 · 14:35V. Hainiuk3.001111133A. Lifanov1.3649110WSep 15 · 13:35A. Yakovenko1.571141291V. Hainiuk2.2581114113LSep 14 · 19:35V. Hainiuk2.501071261V. Kaganovych1.50121110113WSep 14 · 17:35I. Elfemov2.00611791V. Hainiuk1.7311711113WSep 14 · 15:35O. Korobov1.3311115172V. Hainiuk3.25951111113WSep 14 · 14:35V. Hainiuk1.531111113V. Sydorenko2.382840WSep 14 · 13:35V. Sharpai1.5371140V. Hainiuk2.381113113WSep 8 · 19:35V. Hainiuk1.8061111143I. Elfemov1.911166121WSep 8 · 17:35V. Sydorenko2.3846111282V. Hainiuk1.531111710113WSep 8 · 15:35V. Kaganovych1.448870V. Hainiuk2.631111113
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