TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13131275
Played Sep 15Finished
Ivan Jemelka
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11881114121315119
Jiri Matus
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:32 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeIvan Jemelka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIvan Jemelka above · Jiri Matus below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 13-15
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 112 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Ivan Jemelka at 54.0%
112 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Jemelka 3–1 Jiri Matus Jiri Matus has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:32What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Jemelka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Jemelka
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jemelka 1407 vs Matus 1325
Jemelka
Correct
both rated, 82 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jemelka 60% vs Matus 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jemelka 60% vs Matus 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jemelka +1 · Matus -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Jemelka) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Matus form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJemelka 1.53 / Matus 2.38
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Jemelka)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13131275
Jemelka1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite48% won 15 of 31
Up 2–0, closes it75% 6 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it67% 10 of 15
Matus2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog50% won 25 of 50
Down 0–1, comes back32% 7 of 22
Down 0–2, comes back18% 2 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeJemelka3wins
AwayMatus1wins
1 of 4 to a deciderJemelka leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJemelka100%3 of 3
AwayMatusn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jemelka3Matus1n = 4Jemelka took 3 of 4
S2Jemelka2Matus2n = 4split evenly
S3Jemelka4Matus0n = 4Jemelka took 4 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home250%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricJemelkaMatusJ − MBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match39.530.5+9.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJemelkaMatusBasisWin rate · lifetime56 / 116 vs 218 / 42248.3%51.7%56 / 116 vs 218 / 422Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.339.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JemelkaJemelka 1.53/Matus 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.6%
Jemelka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Jemelka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WAug 26 · 07:10I. Jemelka341111123J. Matus2174100
WAug 1 · 09:45I. Jemelka4211811123J. Matus346117101
WJul 6 · 05:45I. Jemelka331111113J. Matus206680
LJul 1 · 18:45I. Jemelka49713111172J. Matus47111555113
I. Jemelka10
WSep 15 · 06:40I. Jemelka1.611111113L. Snr2.208680WSep 12 · 20:49I. Jemelka2.00591113113J. Jnr1.73111151192LSep 12 · 19:45I. Jemelka1.6721111392P. Sturma2.10118811113WSep 12 · 18:45I. Jemelka2.005121112113J. Jnr1.73111061452LSep 12 · 17:45I. Jemelka1.44111125102L. Jr2.63891111123WSep 11 · 21:25P. Jokiel1.5861040I. Jemelka2.131112113WSep 11 · 20:10T. Ogrocki1.6712117792I. Jemelka2.101081111113WSep 11 · 19:10I. Jemelka2.1011119113O. Skvor1.67781171LSep 11 · 17:40P. Jokiel1.5713711113I. Jemelka2.251111671LSep 9 · 21:15O. Skvor1.70611117123I. Jemelka1.96115811102
J. Matus10
LSep 14 · 09:33J. Matus1.91111071172A. Strelec1.80212115113WSep 14 · 08:10J. Matus1.838201111113P. Sturma1.83111871392LSep 14 · 06:40J. Sindler1.731011711123J. Matus2.00123117102WSep 14 · 06:10A. Strelec1.80118125112J. Matus1.915111011133WSep 13 · 20:55J. Matus1.731112113M. Dolezal2.0081030LSep 13 · 20:15J. Oleksik2.10851211113J. Matus1.67111110762WSep 13 · 19:15J. Matus1.73116115113L. Jr2.0081151192LSep 13 · 17:45M. Dolezal2.2011119113J. Matus1.61921171LSep 10 · 08:40J. Matus1.7361211862T. Slivka2.001110811113WSep 10 · 07:40J. Matus1.83121111113T. Slivka1.83148461
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