TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13121862
Played Sep 12Finished
Ivan Jemelka
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
5119111151311119
Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
How it is goingIvan Jemelka above · Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 96 set 5, 11-9
96 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Jemelka 1–3 Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr Ivan Jemelka has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jemelka)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jnr form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJemelka 2.00 / Jnr 1.73
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Jemelka)+7.7pp
TT Cup · #13121862
Jemelka2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog59% won 29 of 49
Down 0–1, comes back29% 6 of 21
Down 0–2, comes back11% 1 of 9
Jnr1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 44 of 82
Up 2–0, closes it91% 20 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it73% 27 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeJemelka1wins
AwayJnr3wins
1 of 4 to a deciderJnr leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJemelkan = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayJnr75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jemelka0Jnr4n = 4Jnr took 4 of 4
S2Jemelka2Jnr2n = 4split evenly
S3Jemelka2Jnr2n = 4split evenly
S4Jemelka0Jnr3n = 3Jnr took 3 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away250%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricJemelkaJnrJemelka − JnrBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set04−4of 4Avg pointsper match34.841.2−6.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJemelkaJnrBasisWin rate · lifetime55 / 115 vs 134 / 25547.8%52.6%55 / 115 vs 134 / 255Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.238.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JemelkaJemelka 2.00/Jnr 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Jemelka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Jemelka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 12 · 18:45I. Jemelka515121112113J. Jnr46111061452
LAug 8 · 20:45I. Jemelka31871151J. Jnr4111118113
LAug 8 · 20:10I. Jemelka31612671J. Jnr43111011113
LJul 1 · 20:15I. Jemelka2611870J. Jnr351311113
I. Jemelka10
LSep 12 · 19:45I. Jemelka1.6721111392P. Sturma2.10118811113WSep 12 · 18:45I. Jemelka2.005121112113J. Jnr1.73111061452LSep 12 · 17:45I. Jemelka1.44111125102L. Jr2.63891111123WSep 11 · 21:25P. Jokiel1.5861040I. Jemelka2.131112113WSep 11 · 20:10T. Ogrocki1.6712117792I. Jemelka2.101081111113WSep 11 · 19:10I. Jemelka2.1011119113O. Skvor1.67781171LSep 11 · 17:40P. Jokiel1.5713711113I. Jemelka2.251111671LSep 9 · 21:15O. Skvor1.70611117123I. Jemelka1.96115811102WSep 9 · 20:10J. Vanous1.6761161152I. Jemelka2.10114115113WSep 9 · 19:10I. Jemelka2.2011126113O. Skvor1.615101151
J. Jnr10
LSep 12 · 20:15J. Jnr1.91101171192L. Jr1.80127116113LSep 12 · 18:45I. Jemelka2.005121112113J. Jnr1.73111061452LSep 12 · 18:15P. Sturma1.6711511113J. Jnr2.10611781LSep 12 · 17:15J. Jnr2.00149561P. Sturma1.73121111113WSep 12 · 15:45J. Jnr2.2511118113P. Sturma1.57851151WSep 12 · 14:45J. Jnr1.83611911113M. Sobota1.8311711362WSep 12 · 13:45J. Jnr1.831111113P. Chvojka1.838680WSep 3 · 17:18L. Jr1.73117311102J. Jnr2.00411118123WSep 3 · 15:45J. Jnr2.10511711113L. Zustina1.6711611652LSep 3 · 14:45J. Jnr2.001183101L. Jr1.7381111123
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