TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13130877
Played Sep 15Finished
Oleksandr Osadchyi
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1191210118––––
Anatolii Kovalenko
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:00 and never touched — 64.8% is still 64.8%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Osadchyi to win
64.8%
64.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Osadchyi above · Anatolii Kovalenko below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 61 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Oleksandr Osadchyi at 64.8%
61 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Osadchyi 13–7 Anatolii Kovalenko Anatolii Kovalenko has won 7 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:00What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Osadchyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-7 in 20
Osadchyi
Correct
gap of 6 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Osadchyi 1505 vs Kovalenko 1417
Osadchyi
Correct
both rated, 88 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Osadchyi 40% vs Kovalenko 60%
Kovalenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Osadchyi 40% vs Kovalenko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Osadchyi -1 · Kovalenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Osadchyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOsadchyi 1.53 / Kovalenko 2.38
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Osadchyi)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13130877
Osadchyi1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite70% won 103 of 147
Up 2–0, closes it96% 53 of 55
Up 1–0, closes it83% 73 of 88
Kovalenko2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog37% won 29 of 79
Down 0–1, comes back21% 10 of 48
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOsadchyi6wins
AwayKovalenko4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderOsadchyi leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOsadchyi83.3%5 of 6
AwayKovalenko75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Osadchyi6Kovalenko4n = 10Osadchyi took 6 of 10
S2Osadchyi6Kovalenko4n = 10Osadchyi took 6 of 10
S3Osadchyi4Kovalenko6n = 10Kovalenko took 6 of 10
S4Osadchyi6Kovalenko3n = 9Osadchyi took 6 of 9
S5Osadchyi2Kovalenko2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricOsadchyiKovalenkoO − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.938.2−0.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOsadchyiKovalenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime440 / 858 vs 278 / 52451.3%53.1%440 / 858 vs 278 / 524Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.337.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OsadchyiOsadchyi 1.53/Kovalenko 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.8%
Osadchyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Osadchyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 24 · 09:30O. Osadchyi4011117113A. Kovalenko27731161
WAug 16 · 07:50O. Osadchyi331111113A. Kovalenko134540
LAug 1 · 12:00O. Osadchyi4511951192A. Kovalenko47511119113
WJul 29 · 08:35O. Osadchyi48118117113A. Kovalenko4691191162
LJul 25 · 15:30O. Osadchyi3454121122A. Kovalenko521111109113
WJul 6 · 10:20O. Osadchyi3811511113A. Kovalenko22311531
LJan 1 · 10:20O. Osadchyi20314121A. Kovalenko45111211113
LDec 31 · 18:20O. Osadchyi34911771A. Kovalenko4011711113
WDec 29 · 12:20O. Osadchyi48112911153A. Kovalenko531110118132
WDec 28 · 21:20O. Osadchyi3911115123A. Kovalenko379711101
O. Osadchyi10
LSep 15 · 08:05O. Osadchyi4.001011651A. Martyniuk1.2212611113WSep 15 · 06:35O. Osadchyi1.731112113A. Kurtenko2.0061090WSep 15 · 05:05O. Osadchyi1.401111113E. Populovskyi2.759870LSep 13 · 11:50O. Osadchyi3.756990A. Martyniuk1.251111113LSep 13 · 10:20O. Osadchyi1.67115591O. Tymofeev2.1091111113LSep 13 · 08:50O. Osadchyi1.61114671A. Kurtenko2.2061111113LSep 13 · 07:20O. Osadchyi1.33107111152E. Populovskyi3.25121134113WSep 13 · 05:50O. Osadchyi2.1011711113S. Solomko1.67511881WSep 10 · 12:05V. Vietrov1.676430O. Osadchyi2.101111113LSep 10 · 10:35O. Osadchyi4.00591161A. Troyan1.2211119113
A. Kovalenko10
LSep 15 · 08:35A. Kovalenko1.83711921A. Kurtenko1.8311711113WSep 15 · 07:35S. Skhabitskiy2.25115961A. Kovalenko1.5771111113LSep 15 · 06:05A. Kovalenko2.634880A. Martyniuk1.441111113WSep 11 · 18:00A. Kovalenko2.0031111113V. Smyk1.73119991WSep 11 · 16:30A. Kovalenko2.20911119143O. Leonenko1.61116911122LSep 11 · 15:00A. Kovalenko2.635911101O. Tymofeev1.4411119123LSep 11 · 13:30A. Kovalenko2.106680S. Solomko1.671111113WSep 11 · 12:00A. Kovalenko1.831113411113E. Populovskyi1.8321511232LSep 9 · 19:00O. Tymofeev1.5311611113A. Kovalenko2.38511521LSep 9 · 17:30A. Kovalenko1.806940F. Voinarovskyi1.911111113
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