TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13122036
Played Sep 13Finished
Oleksandr Osadchyi
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119511511911––
Oleksandr Tymofeev
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:29 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Osadchyi to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Osadchyi above · Oleksandr Tymofeev below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 72 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Oleksandr Osadchyi at 55.8%
72 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Osadchyi 5–6 Oleksandr Tymofeev Oleksandr Osadchyi has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:29What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Osadchyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-6 in 11
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Osadchyi 1519 vs Tymofeev 1446
Osadchyi
Wrong
both rated, 73 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Osadchyi 40% vs Tymofeev 60%
Tymofeev
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Osadchyi 40% vs Tymofeev 60%
Tymofeev
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Osadchyi -2 · Tymofeev -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Osadchyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tymofeev form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOsadchyi 1.67 / Tymofeev 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Osadchyi)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13122036
Osadchyi1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite72% won 106 of 147
Up 2–0, closes it97% 56 of 58
Up 1–0, closes it85% 76 of 89
Tymofeev2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog35% won 33 of 94
Down 0–1, comes back21% 11 of 52
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOsadchyi4wins
AwayTymofeev6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderTymofeev leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOsadchyi50%2 of 4
AwayTymofeev66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Osadchyi4Tymofeev6n = 10Tymofeev took 6 of 10
S2Osadchyi3Tymofeev7n = 10Tymofeev took 7 of 10
S3Osadchyi3Tymofeev7n = 10Tymofeev took 7 of 10
S4Osadchyi4Tymofeev2n = 6Osadchyi took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricOsadchyiTymofeevO − TBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match33.637.6−4.0per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOsadchyiTymofeevBasisWin rate · lifetime438 / 853 vs 282 / 53951.4%52.3%438 / 853 vs 282 / 539Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.337.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OsadchyiOsadchyi 1.67/Tymofeev 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.8%
Osadchyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Tymofeev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 24 · 07:00O. Osadchyi167360O. Tymofeev331111113
WAug 16 · 06:50O. Osadchyi511111711113O. Tymofeev4677111382
LAug 15 · 16:30O. Osadchyi2471340O. Tymofeev371115113
WAug 9 · 10:20O. Osadchyi4211911113O. Tymofeev29911361
LAug 8 · 15:30O. Osadchyi227960O. Tymofeev331111113
LAug 2 · 07:00O. Osadchyi39115101122O. Tymofeev43511124113
LJul 28 · 12:40O. Osadchyi2567120O. Tymofeev361111143
WJul 26 · 10:50O. Osadchyi48121111143O. Tymofeev391458121
WJul 21 · 15:40O. Osadchyi4381212113O. Tymofeev3811101071
LJul 19 · 09:50O. Osadchyi26115551O. Tymofeev4291111113
O. Osadchyi10
LSep 13 · 08:50O. Osadchyi1.61114671A. Kurtenko2.2061111113LSep 13 · 07:20O. Osadchyi1.33107111152E. Populovskyi3.25121134113WSep 13 · 05:50O. Osadchyi2.1011711113S. Solomko1.67511881WSep 10 · 12:05V. Vietrov1.676430O. Osadchyi2.101111113LSep 10 · 10:35O. Osadchyi4.00591161A. Troyan1.2211119113WSep 10 · 08:35D. Khairov1.808670O. Osadchyi1.911111113LSep 10 · 06:35O. Volynets2.25111163113O. Osadchyi1.5754111192LSep 10 · 05:35V. Kolesnykov1.61111013113O. Osadchyi2.208121171LSep 8 · 11:05O. Osadchyi2.389480A. Obishchenko1.531111113WSep 8 · 09:35O. Osadchyi2.00491112113D. Khairov1.73111171052
O. Tymofeev10
LSep 13 · 09:20O. Tymofeev2.25118115102E. Populovskyi1.57811611123WSep 13 · 08:20A. Martyniuk1.611110551O. Tymofeev2.2041211113WSep 13 · 06:50O. Tymofeev1.5751111113A. Kurtenko2.25119921LSep 12 · 19:00O. Tymofeev2.0081050E. Populovskyi1.731112113WSep 12 · 17:00V. Smyk2.5087100O. Tymofeev1.501111123WSep 12 · 15:00A. Kurtenko2.10330O. Tymofeev1.6711112WSep 12 · 14:00O. Tymofeev1.50111152S. Solomko2.5069111LSep 12 · 13:00O. Leonenko3.5011211113O. Tymofeev1.28411581LSep 11 · 19:00O. Tymofeev1.4478111382S. Solomko2.631111611103WSep 11 · 17:00V. Smyk2.50111231082O. Tymofeev1.509101112113
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