TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13121801
Played Sep 13Finished
Oleksandr Osadchyi
Home
1.33
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1012711113114511
Eduard Populovskyi
Away
3.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:55 and never touched — 73.3% is still 73.3%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Osadchyi to win
73.3%
73.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Osadchyi above · Eduard Populovskyi below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 85 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Oleksandr Osadchyi at 73.3%
85 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Osadchyi 17–6 Eduard Populovskyi Eduard Populovskyi has won 6 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:55What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Osadchyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-6 in 23
Osadchyi
Wrong
gap of 11 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Osadchyi 1548 vs Populovskyi 1484
Osadchyi
Wrong
both rated, 65 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Osadchyi 60% vs Populovskyi 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Osadchyi 60% vs Populovskyi 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Osadchyi +2 · Populovskyi +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Osadchyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Populovskyi form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOsadchyi 1.33 / Populovskyi 3.25
Signal prob.73% / 27%
Edge (Osadchyi)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13121801
Osadchyi1.33
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite72% won 106 of 147
Up 2–0, closes it97% 56 of 58
Up 1–0, closes it85% 76 of 89
Populovskyi3.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog32% won 46 of 142
Down 0–1, comes back21% 19 of 91
Down 0–2, comes back9% 6 of 64
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOsadchyi8wins
AwayPopulovskyi2wins
5 of 10 to a deciderOsadchyi leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOsadchyi100%5 of 5
AwayPopulovskyi40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Osadchyi5Populovskyi5n = 10split evenly
S2Osadchyi8Populovskyi2n = 10Osadchyi took 8 of 10
S3Osadchyi7Populovskyi3n = 10Osadchyi took 7 of 10
S4Osadchyi5Populovskyi1n = 6Osadchyi took 5 of 6
S5Osadchyi3Populovskyi2n = 5Osadchyi took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricOsadchyiPopulovskyiO − PBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.430.7+10.7per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOsadchyiPopulovskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime438 / 852 vs 344 / 70051.4%49.1%438 / 852 vs 344 / 700Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.336.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OsadchyiOsadchyi 1.33/Populovskyi 3.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
73.3%
Osadchyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Populovskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 13 · 07:20O. Osadchyi44107111152E. Populovskyi41121134113
WSep 3 · 04:30O. Osadchyi50119118113E. Populovskyi3831161172
WSep 2 · 05:05O. Osadchyi331111113E. Populovskyi169340
LAug 30 · 05:50O. Osadchyi47811111162E. Populovskyi47119133113
WAug 29 · 14:00O. Osadchyi331111113E. Populovskyi144730
WAug 16 · 08:50O. Osadchyi361111143E. Populovskyi2365120
WAug 15 · 13:30O. Osadchyi3521111113E. Populovskyi28114761
WAug 9 · 09:20O. Osadchyi539111111113E. Populovskyi3811813242
WAug 2 · 08:30O. Osadchyi341211113E. Populovskyi2410770
WAug 1 · 14:00O. Osadchyi49911711113E. Populovskyi3811611732
O. Osadchyi10
WSep 13 · 05:50O. Osadchyi2.1011711113S. Solomko1.67511881WSep 10 · 12:05V. Vietrov1.676430O. Osadchyi2.101111113LSep 10 · 10:35O. Osadchyi4.00591161A. Troyan1.2211119113WSep 10 · 08:35D. Khairov1.808670O. Osadchyi1.911111113LSep 10 · 06:35O. Volynets2.25111163113O. Osadchyi1.5754111192LSep 10 · 05:35V. Kolesnykov1.61111013113O. Osadchyi2.208121171LSep 8 · 11:05O. Osadchyi2.389480A. Obishchenko1.531111113WSep 8 · 09:35O. Osadchyi2.00491112113D. Khairov1.73111171052WSep 8 · 08:05O. Osadchyi5.0071111113A. Troyan1.14119651WSep 8 · 06:35O. Osadchyi1.6761211113O. Volynets2.101110761
E. Populovskyi10
WSep 13 · 06:20A. Martyniuk1.40114861E. Populovskyi2.7561111113WSep 12 · 19:00O. Tymofeev2.0081050E. Populovskyi1.731112113LSep 12 · 17:30E. Populovskyi3.254540S. Solomko1.33111183LSep 12 · 13:30A. Kurtenko1.8071311113E. Populovskyi1.911111851WSep 12 · 12:30V. Smyk1.911111119102E. Populovskyi1.80138811123WSep 11 · 18:30O. Leonenko2.00116971E. Populovskyi1.7391111113LSep 11 · 17:30S. Solomko1.331211113E. Populovskyi3.2510440WSep 11 · 16:00V. Smyk1.917750E. Populovskyi1.801111113WSep 11 · 14:00O. Tymofeev2.0013771172E. Populovskyi1.731111115113LSep 11 · 12:00A. Kovalenko1.831113411113E. Populovskyi1.8321511232
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