TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13130801
Played Sep 15Finished
Sergii Skhabitskiy
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
117511911611––
Anatolii Kovalenko
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:52 and never touched — 57.9% is still 57.9%
Graded at full timeAnatolii Kovalenko to win
57.9%
57.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSergii Skhabitskiy above · Anatolii Kovalenko below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 71 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Anatolii Kovalenko at 57.9%
71 points played in total.
H2H Sergii Skhabitskiy 7–17 Anatolii Kovalenko Sergii Skhabitskiy has won 7 of their 24 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:52What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Kovalenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-17 in 24
Kovalenko
Correct
gap of 10 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skhabitskiy 1434 vs Kovalenko 1416
Skhabitskiy
Wrong
both rated, 18 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skhabitskiy 40% vs Kovalenko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skhabitskiy 50% vs Kovalenko 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skhabitskiy -2 · Kovalenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Kovalenko) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkhabitskiy 2.25 / Kovalenko 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Kovalenko)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13130801
Skhabitskiy2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 93 of 232
Down 0–1, comes back21% 24 of 115
Down 0–2, comes back7% 5 of 71
Kovalenko1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite52% won 73 of 141
Up 2–0, closes it94% 32 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it69% 50 of 73
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkhabitskiy5wins
AwayKovalenko5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkhabitskiy75%3 of 4
AwayKovalenko66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skhabitskiy4Kovalenko6n = 10Kovalenko took 6 of 10
S2Skhabitskiy4Kovalenko6n = 10Kovalenko took 6 of 10
S3Skhabitskiy6Kovalenko4n = 10Skhabitskiy took 6 of 10
S4Skhabitskiy7Kovalenko0n = 7Skhabitskiy took 7 of 7
S5Skhabitskiy0Kovalenko3n = 3Kovalenko took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkhabitskiyKovalenkoS − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.034.6+0.4per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkhabitskiyKovalenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime476 / 1071 vs 277 / 52244.4%53.1%476 / 1071 vs 277 / 522Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.837.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalenkoSkhabitskiy 2.25/Kovalenko 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Kovalenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kovalenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 31 · 07:35S. Skhabitskiy3711411113A. Kovalenko28511391
LAug 10 · 08:20S. Skhabitskiy2510780A. Kovalenko341211113
LAug 7 · 08:30S. Skhabitskiy144550A. Kovalenko331111113
WAug 6 · 11:50S. Skhabitskiy3961111113A. Kovalenko29114951
WJul 31 · 11:30S. Skhabitskiy331111113A. Kovalenko157440
LJul 26 · 13:30S. Skhabitskiy4011561262A. Kovalenko46711111073
LJul 23 · 10:20S. Skhabitskiy4569111272A. Kovalenko501111710113
LJul 13 · 10:20S. Skhabitskiy3991141142A. Kovalenko48118117113
WJul 8 · 08:05S. Skhabitskiy3611311113A. Kovalenko27511651
WJul 1 · 15:30S. Skhabitskiy4281211113A. Kovalenko361110871
S. Skhabitskiy10
LSep 15 · 05:35S. Skhabitskiy2.63611111162A. Kurtenko1.44111374113LSep 14 · 12:20S. Skhabitskiy1.366930O. Ovsiienko3.001111113WSep 14 · 10:20V. Mukhin4.50911881S. Skhabitskiy1.1711711113LSep 14 · 09:20S. Skhabitskiy1.83111141052M. Stetsenko1.83891112113WSep 14 · 08:20K. Klymenko2.105990S. Skhabitskiy1.671111113WSep 14 · 06:50S. Skhabitskiy2.2071111113O. Mytsyk1.61119961WAug 31 · 11:05V. Kolesnykov1.57107111142S. Skhabitskiy2.25121188113LAug 31 · 10:05S. Skhabitskiy3.2512311762A. Martyniuk1.331011911113LAug 31 · 09:05S. Skhabitskiy2.5099130E. Populovskyi1.501111153WAug 31 · 07:35S. Skhabitskiy2.7511411113A. Kovalenko1.40511391
A. Kovalenko10
LSep 15 · 06:05A. Kovalenko2.634880A. Martyniuk1.441111113WSep 11 · 18:00A. Kovalenko2.0031111113V. Smyk1.73119991WSep 11 · 16:30A. Kovalenko2.20911119143O. Leonenko1.61116911122LSep 11 · 15:00A. Kovalenko2.635911101O. Tymofeev1.4411119123LSep 11 · 13:30A. Kovalenko2.106680S. Solomko1.671111113WSep 11 · 12:00A. Kovalenko1.831113411113E. Populovskyi1.8321511232LSep 9 · 19:00O. Tymofeev1.5311611113A. Kovalenko2.38511521LSep 9 · 17:30A. Kovalenko1.806940F. Voinarovskyi1.911111113WSep 9 · 15:30O. Ovsiienko2.255760A. Kovalenko1.571111113LAug 31 · 07:35S. Skhabitskiy2.7511411113A. Kovalenko1.40511391
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