TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13126206
Played Sep 14Finished
Vitalii Mukhin
Home
4.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911117811811––
Sergii Skhabitskiy
Away
1.17
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:32 and never touched — 81.0% is still 81.0%
Graded at full timeSergii Skhabitskiy to win
81.0%
81.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVitalii Mukhin above · Sergii Skhabitskiy below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 76 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Sergii Skhabitskiy at 81.0%
76 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Mukhin 0–5 Sergii Skhabitskiy Vitalii Mukhin has won 0 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:32What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.17 (79%)
Skhabitskiy
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-5 in 5
Skhabitskiy
Correct
gap of 5 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mukhin 1355 vs Skhabitskiy 1453
Skhabitskiy
Correct
both rated, 98 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mukhin 80% vs Skhabitskiy 60%
Mukhin
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mukhin 80% vs Skhabitskiy 50%
Mukhin
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mukhin +1 · Skhabitskiy -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 82% — Strong (leans Skhabitskiy) · live re-read · sealed at 81% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skhabitskiy form (60%) is below what odds imply (86%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMukhin 4.50 / Skhabitskiy 1.17
Signal prob.18% / 82%
Edge (Skhabitskiy)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13126206
Mukhin4.50
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog30% won 25 of 84
Down 0–1, comes back18% 9 of 50
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 30
Skhabitskiy1.17
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite54% won 96 of 177
Up 2–0, closes it96% 48 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it77% 72 of 93
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeMukhin0wins
AwaySkhabitskiy5wins
Skhabitskiy leads 5–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMukhinn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwaySkhabitskiy100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mukhin1Skhabitskiy4n = 5Skhabitskiy took 4 of 5
S2Mukhin0Skhabitskiy5n = 5Skhabitskiy took 5 of 5
S3Mukhin2Skhabitskiy3n = 5Skhabitskiy took 3 of 5
S4Mukhin0Skhabitskiy3n = 3Skhabitskiy took 3 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away360%
0–3Straight, away240%
These 5 meetings
MetricMukhinSkhabitskiyM − SBasisWins05−5in 5 meetingsFirst set14−3of 5Avg pointsper match28.238.0−9.8per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMukhinSkhabitskiyBasisWin rate · lifetime163 / 312 vs 475 / 106852.2%44.5%163 / 312 vs 475 / 1068Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.736.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkhabitskiyMukhin 4.50/Skhabitskiy 1.17
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
81.8%
Skhabitskiy · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Skhabitskiy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LJul 20 · 07:30V. Mukhin2147100S. Skhabitskiy341111123
LJul 19 · 13:40V. Mukhin207850S. Skhabitskiy331111113
LJun 18 · 11:05V. Mukhin28381161S. Skhabitskiy3911116113
LJun 17 · 13:40V. Mukhin34117881S. Skhabitskiy4181111113
LApr 23 · 20:50V. Mukhin388101191S. Skhabitskiy4311129113
V. Mukhin10
WSep 14 · 08:50V. Mukhin2.6311158113O. Mytsyk1.444131181LSep 14 · 07:20V. Mukhin3.509570M. Stetsenko1.281111113WSep 9 · 11:05V. Mukhin1.57119511113S. Hovorunets2.2591111632WSep 9 · 09:35V. Mukhin1.50116811113S. Semenets2.5071111972WSep 9 · 08:05V. Mukhin3.251212113O. Mytsyk1.33101090WSep 9 · 06:35V. Mukhin2.10311411113M. Khalenko1.6711711972WSep 9 · 05:05V. Mukhin1.5761211113D. Khavanskyi2.251110771WSep 8 · 18:00V. Mukhin1.331111113V. Stukalov3.255860WSep 8 · 16:30V. Mukhin1.4071111113V. Varchenko2.75116351LSep 8 · 15:00V. Mukhin1.50711119132S. Hovorunets2.50117411153
S. Skhabitskiy10
LSep 14 · 09:20S. Skhabitskiy1.83111141052M. Stetsenko1.83891112113WSep 14 · 08:20K. Klymenko2.105990S. Skhabitskiy1.671111113WSep 14 · 06:50S. Skhabitskiy2.2071111113O. Mytsyk1.61119961WAug 31 · 11:05V. Kolesnykov1.57107111142S. Skhabitskiy2.25121188113LAug 31 · 10:05S. Skhabitskiy3.2512311762A. Martyniuk1.331011911113LAug 31 · 09:05S. Skhabitskiy2.5099130E. Populovskyi1.501111153WAug 31 · 07:35S. Skhabitskiy2.7511411113A. Kovalenko1.40511391WAug 31 · 05:35S. Skhabitskiy2.2513117123S. Solomko1.5711611101LAug 30 · 18:30O. Leonenko2.001111113S. Skhabitskiy1.737470LAug 30 · 17:30M. Stetsenko1.8371111113S. Skhabitskiy1.83119831
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