TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13131202
Played Sep 15Finished
Anatolii Kovalenko
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
411811811––––
Andrii Martyniuk
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:09 and never touched — 63.2% is still 63.2%
Graded at full timeAndrii Martyniuk to win
63.2%
63.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAnatolii Kovalenko above · Andrii Martyniuk below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 53 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Andrii Martyniuk at 63.2%
53 points played in total.
H2H Anatolii Kovalenko 3–3 Andrii Martyniuk Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:09What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Martyniuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalenko 1416 vs Martyniuk 1509
Martyniuk
Correct
both rated, 93 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalenko 60% vs Martyniuk 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalenko 50% vs Martyniuk 70%
Martyniuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalenko +2 · Martyniuk +3
Martyniuk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Martyniuk) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalenko 2.63 / Martyniuk 1.44
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Martyniuk)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13131202
Kovalenko2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog37% won 29 of 79
Down 0–1, comes back21% 10 of 48
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 30
Martyniuk1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 56 of 93
Up 2–0, closes it95% 35 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it70% 41 of 59
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeKovalenko3wins
AwayMartyniuk3wins
2 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalenkon = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayMartyniuk60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalenko1Martyniuk5n = 6Martyniuk took 5 of 6
S2Kovalenko2Martyniuk4n = 6Martyniuk took 4 of 6
S3Kovalenko2Martyniuk4n = 6Martyniuk took 4 of 6
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home233%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away350%
These 6 meetings
MetricKovalenkoMartyniukK − MBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set15−4of 6Avg pointsper match32.235.5−3.3per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalenkoMartyniukBasisWin rate · lifetime277 / 522 vs 170 / 32653.1%52.2%277 / 522 vs 170 / 326Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.738.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MartyniukKovalenko 2.63/Martyniuk 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.3%
Martyniuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Martyniuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 15 · 06:05A. Kovalenko204880A. Martyniuk331111113
WAug 31 · 06:05A. Kovalenko46611612113A. Martyniuk44117111052
LAug 25 · 16:40A. Kovalenko2761470A. Martyniuk381116113
WApr 13 · 10:35A. Kovalenko43441311113A. Martyniuk48111111872
LFeb 3 · 12:00A. Kovalenko248790A. Martyniuk331111113
WJan 19 · 07:35A. Kovalenko331111113A. Martyniuk177280
A. Kovalenko10
WSep 11 · 18:00A. Kovalenko2.0031111113V. Smyk1.73119991WSep 11 · 16:30A. Kovalenko2.20911119143O. Leonenko1.61116911122LSep 11 · 15:00A. Kovalenko2.635911101O. Tymofeev1.4411119123LSep 11 · 13:30A. Kovalenko2.106680S. Solomko1.671111113WSep 11 · 12:00A. Kovalenko1.831113411113E. Populovskyi1.8321511232LSep 9 · 19:00O. Tymofeev1.5311611113A. Kovalenko2.38511521LSep 9 · 17:30A. Kovalenko1.806940F. Voinarovskyi1.911111113WSep 9 · 15:30O. Ovsiienko2.255760A. Kovalenko1.571111113WSep 9 · 13:30M. Stetsenko2.75641181A. Kovalenko1.4011117113LSep 9 · 12:30V. Smyk2.101111113A. Kovalenko1.677790
A. Martyniuk10
WSep 15 · 07:05A. Martyniuk1.4411119113E. Populovskyi2.63991171WSep 13 · 11:50O. Osadchyi3.756990A. Martyniuk1.251111113WSep 13 · 10:50A. Martyniuk1.33111179123A. Kurtenko3.25581111102WSep 13 · 09:50A. Martyniuk1.83911117123S. Solomko1.83119511102LSep 13 · 08:20A. Martyniuk1.611110551O. Tymofeev2.2041211113LSep 13 · 06:20A. Martyniuk1.40114861E. Populovskyi2.7561111113WSep 10 · 12:50A. Martyniuk1.611111113M. Stetsenko2.208850WSep 10 · 10:50K. Klymenko3.2511911772A. Martyniuk1.33611511113WSep 10 · 08:50F. Voinarovskyi3.008780A. Martyniuk1.361111113WSep 10 · 07:50A. Martyniuk1.73771111113O. Ovsiienko2.0011114162
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