TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13131154
Played Sep 15Finished
Andrii Martyniuk
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119119911117––
Eduard Populovskyi
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:02 and never touched — 67.3% is still 67.3%
Graded at full timeAndrii Martyniuk to win
67.3%
67.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAndrii Martyniuk above · Eduard Populovskyi below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 78 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Andrii Martyniuk at 67.3%
78 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Martyniuk 14–7 Eduard Populovskyi Eduard Populovskyi has won 7 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:02What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Martyniuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-7 in 21
Martyniuk
Correct
gap of 7 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Martyniuk 1520 vs Populovskyi 1487
Martyniuk
Correct
both rated, 34 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Martyniuk 80% vs Populovskyi 60%
Martyniuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Martyniuk 80% vs Populovskyi 60%
Martyniuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Martyniuk +4 · Populovskyi -1
Martyniuk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Martyniuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Populovskyi form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMartyniuk 1.44 / Populovskyi 2.63
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Martyniuk)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13131154
Martyniuk1.44
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite60% won 56 of 93
Up 2–0, closes it95% 35 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it70% 41 of 59
Populovskyi2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog34% won 49 of 143
Down 0–1, comes back22% 20 of 90
Down 0–2, comes back10% 6 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMartyniuk7wins
AwayPopulovskyi3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMartyniuk leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMartyniuk66.7%6 of 9
AwayPopulovskyin = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Martyniuk9Populovskyi1n = 10Martyniuk took 9 of 10
S2Martyniuk7Populovskyi3n = 10Martyniuk took 7 of 10
S3Martyniuk4Populovskyi6n = 10Populovskyi took 6 of 10
S4Martyniuk4Populovskyi3n = 7Martyniuk took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMartyniukPopulovskyiM − PBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match40.035.5+4.5per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMartyniukPopulovskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime171 / 327 vs 342 / 69552.3%49.2%171 / 327 vs 342 / 695Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.436.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MartyniukMartyniuk 1.44/Populovskyi 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.3%
Martyniuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Martyniuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 15 · 07:05A. Martyniuk4211119113E. Populovskyi36991171
LSep 13 · 06:20A. Martyniuk29114861E. Populovskyi3961111113
WAug 31 · 07:05A. Martyniuk531111812113E. Populovskyi4466111472
WAug 29 · 13:00A. Martyniuk381116113E. Populovskyi2251430
WAug 22 · 13:30A. Martyniuk341211113E. Populovskyi2810990
WJul 23 · 10:35A. Martyniuk3811115113E. Populovskyi34591191
LJul 22 · 09:35A. Martyniuk4311131091E. Populovskyi4461512113
WJun 21 · 20:50A. Martyniuk4391211113E. Populovskyi371110881
WMar 19 · 12:00A. Martyniuk331111113E. Populovskyi196760
LFeb 15 · 13:20A. Martyniuk4712791182E. Populovskyi521011119113
A. Martyniuk10
WSep 15 · 06:05A. Kovalenko2.634880A. Martyniuk1.441111113WSep 13 · 11:50O. Osadchyi3.756990A. Martyniuk1.251111113WSep 13 · 10:50A. Martyniuk1.33111179123A. Kurtenko3.25581111102WSep 13 · 09:50A. Martyniuk1.83911117123S. Solomko1.83119511102LSep 13 · 08:20A. Martyniuk1.611110551O. Tymofeev2.2041211113LSep 13 · 06:20A. Martyniuk1.40114861E. Populovskyi2.7561111113WSep 10 · 12:50A. Martyniuk1.611111113M. Stetsenko2.208850WSep 10 · 10:50K. Klymenko3.2511911772A. Martyniuk1.33611511113WSep 10 · 08:50F. Voinarovskyi3.008780A. Martyniuk1.361111113WSep 10 · 07:50A. Martyniuk1.73771111113O. Ovsiienko2.0011114162
E. Populovskyi10
LSep 15 · 05:05O. Osadchyi1.401111113E. Populovskyi2.759870WSep 13 · 12:50A. Kurtenko1.73101090E. Populovskyi2.001212113LSep 13 · 11:20E. Populovskyi3.5051070S. Solomko1.281112113WSep 13 · 09:20O. Tymofeev2.25118115102E. Populovskyi1.57811611123WSep 13 · 07:20O. Osadchyi1.33107111152E. Populovskyi3.25121134113WSep 13 · 06:20A. Martyniuk1.40114861E. Populovskyi2.7561111113WSep 12 · 19:00O. Tymofeev2.0081050E. Populovskyi1.731112113LSep 12 · 17:30E. Populovskyi3.254540S. Solomko1.33111183LSep 12 · 13:30A. Kurtenko1.8071311113E. Populovskyi1.911111851WSep 12 · 12:30V. Smyk1.911111119102E. Populovskyi1.80138811123
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