TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13131153
Played Sep 15Finished
Oleksandr Osadchyi
Home
1.40
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119118117––––
Eduard Populovskyi
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:02 and never touched — 67.9% is still 67.9%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Osadchyi to win
67.9%
67.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Osadchyi above · Eduard Populovskyi below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 57 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Oleksandr Osadchyi at 67.9%
57 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Osadchyi 17–6 Eduard Populovskyi Eduard Populovskyi has won 6 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:02What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Osadchyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-6 in 23
Osadchyi
Correct
gap of 11 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Osadchyi 1490 vs Populovskyi 1512
Populovskyi
Wrong
both rated, 22 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Osadchyi 20% vs Populovskyi 80%
Populovskyi
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Osadchyi 30% vs Populovskyi 70%
Populovskyi
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Osadchyi -4 · Populovskyi +1
Osadchyi
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Osadchyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Populovskyi form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOsadchyi 1.40 / Populovskyi 2.75
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Osadchyi)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13131153
Osadchyi1.40
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite70% won 103 of 147
Up 2–0, closes it96% 53 of 55
Up 1–0, closes it83% 73 of 88
Populovskyi2.75
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog34% won 49 of 143
Down 0–1, comes back22% 20 of 90
Down 0–2, comes back10% 6 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOsadchyi8wins
AwayPopulovskyi2wins
5 of 10 to a deciderOsadchyi leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOsadchyi100%5 of 5
AwayPopulovskyi40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Osadchyi5Populovskyi5n = 10split evenly
S2Osadchyi8Populovskyi2n = 10Osadchyi took 8 of 10
S3Osadchyi7Populovskyi3n = 10Osadchyi took 7 of 10
S4Osadchyi5Populovskyi1n = 6Osadchyi took 5 of 6
S5Osadchyi3Populovskyi2n = 5Osadchyi took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricOsadchyiPopulovskyiO − PBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.430.7+10.7per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOsadchyiPopulovskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime438 / 855 vs 342 / 69351.2%49.4%438 / 855 vs 342 / 693Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.336.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OsadchyiOsadchyi 1.40/Populovskyi 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.9%
Osadchyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Osadchyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 13 · 07:20O. Osadchyi44107111152E. Populovskyi41121134113
WSep 3 · 04:30O. Osadchyi50119118113E. Populovskyi3831161172
WSep 2 · 05:05O. Osadchyi331111113E. Populovskyi169340
LAug 30 · 05:50O. Osadchyi47811111162E. Populovskyi47119133113
WAug 29 · 14:00O. Osadchyi331111113E. Populovskyi144730
WAug 16 · 08:50O. Osadchyi361111143E. Populovskyi2365120
WAug 15 · 13:30O. Osadchyi3521111113E. Populovskyi28114761
WAug 9 · 09:20O. Osadchyi539111111113E. Populovskyi3811813242
WAug 2 · 08:30O. Osadchyi341211113E. Populovskyi2410770
WAug 1 · 14:00O. Osadchyi49911711113E. Populovskyi3811611732
O. Osadchyi10
WSep 15 · 06:35O. Osadchyi1.731112113A. Kurtenko2.0061090LSep 13 · 11:50O. Osadchyi3.756990A. Martyniuk1.251111113LSep 13 · 10:20O. Osadchyi1.67115591O. Tymofeev2.1091111113LSep 13 · 08:50O. Osadchyi1.61114671A. Kurtenko2.2061111113LSep 13 · 07:20O. Osadchyi1.33107111152E. Populovskyi3.25121134113WSep 13 · 05:50O. Osadchyi2.1011711113S. Solomko1.67511881WSep 10 · 12:05V. Vietrov1.676430O. Osadchyi2.101111113LSep 10 · 10:35O. Osadchyi4.00591161A. Troyan1.2211119113WSep 10 · 08:35D. Khairov1.808670O. Osadchyi1.911111113LSep 10 · 06:35O. Volynets2.25111163113O. Osadchyi1.5754111192
E. Populovskyi10
LSep 15 · 07:05A. Martyniuk1.4411119113E. Populovskyi2.63991171WSep 13 · 12:50A. Kurtenko1.73101090E. Populovskyi2.001212113LSep 13 · 11:20E. Populovskyi3.5051070S. Solomko1.281112113WSep 13 · 09:20O. Tymofeev2.25118115102E. Populovskyi1.57811611123WSep 13 · 07:20O. Osadchyi1.33107111152E. Populovskyi3.25121134113WSep 13 · 06:20A. Martyniuk1.40114861E. Populovskyi2.7561111113WSep 12 · 19:00O. Tymofeev2.0081050E. Populovskyi1.731112113LSep 12 · 17:30E. Populovskyi3.254540S. Solomko1.33111183LSep 12 · 13:30A. Kurtenko1.8071311113E. Populovskyi1.911111851WSep 12 · 12:30V. Smyk1.911111119102E. Populovskyi1.80138811123
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