TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13121871
Played Sep 13Finished
Andrii Kurtenko
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
10121012911––––
Eduard Populovskyi
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:58 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeAndrii Kurtenko to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAndrii Kurtenko above · Eduard Populovskyi below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 7-9
Point 60 set 3, 7-9 — our read held Andrii Kurtenko at 54.5%
60 points drawn · the score is 4 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Andrii Kurtenko 14–10 Eduard Populovskyi Eduard Populovskyi has won 10 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:58What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kurtenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-10 in 24
Kurtenko
Wrong
gap of 4 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kurtenko 1455 vs Populovskyi 1491
Populovskyi
Correct
both rated, 36 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kurtenko 40% vs Populovskyi 80%
Populovskyi
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kurtenko 40% vs Populovskyi 60%
Populovskyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kurtenko -1 · Populovskyi -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kurtenko) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Populovskyi form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKurtenko 1.73 / Populovskyi 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kurtenko)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13121871
Kurtenko1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 145 of 241
Up 2–0, closes it91% 82 of 90
Up 1–0, closes it80% 110 of 138
Populovskyi2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog32% won 46 of 142
Down 0–1, comes back21% 19 of 91
Down 0–2, comes back9% 6 of 64
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKurtenko7wins
AwayPopulovskyi3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKurtenko leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKurtenko75%6 of 8
AwayPopulovskyin = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kurtenko8Populovskyi2n = 10Kurtenko took 8 of 10
S2Kurtenko3Populovskyi7n = 10Populovskyi took 7 of 10
S3Kurtenko4Populovskyi6n = 10Populovskyi took 6 of 10
S4Kurtenko5Populovskyi4n = 9Kurtenko took 5 of 9
S5Kurtenko4Populovskyi0n = 4Kurtenko took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKurtenkoPopulovskyiK − PBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match42.538.1+4.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKurtenkoPopulovskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime340 / 651 vs 345 / 70252.2%49.2%340 / 651 vs 345 / 702Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.936.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KurtenkoKurtenko 1.73/Populovskyi 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kurtenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Populovskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 12 · 13:30A. Kurtenko4271311113E. Populovskyi351111851
WSep 3 · 06:30A. Kurtenko351111133E. Populovskyi2458110
WSep 2 · 09:05A. Kurtenko47111177113E. Populovskyi4286111162
LAug 27 · 11:20A. Kurtenko361181071E. Populovskyi3731112113
LAug 23 · 07:50A. Kurtenko359101151E. Populovskyi4311129113
WAug 22 · 19:00A. Kurtenko4211911113E. Populovskyi30911551
WAug 16 · 07:20A. Kurtenko521181111113E. Populovskyi4571113682
WAug 10 · 07:20A. Kurtenko541191011133E. Populovskyi46811124112
WAug 9 · 08:20A. Kurtenko48119611113E. Populovskyi3971111462
LJul 12 · 19:00A. Kurtenko34117971E. Populovskyi4071111113
A. Kurtenko10
LSep 13 · 10:50A. Martyniuk1.33111179123A. Kurtenko3.25581111102WSep 13 · 08:50O. Osadchyi1.61114671A. Kurtenko2.2061111113LSep 13 · 07:50A. Kurtenko1.831194111S. Solomko1.8341111133LSep 13 · 06:50O. Tymofeev1.5751111113A. Kurtenko2.25119921WSep 12 · 18:00A. Kurtenko1.8314102V. Smyk1.831290LSep 12 · 16:30A. Kurtenko1.6791111892O. Leonenko2.10118611113LSep 12 · 15:00A. Kurtenko2.10330O. Tymofeev1.6711112WSep 12 · 13:30A. Kurtenko1.8071311113E. Populovskyi1.911111851LSep 12 · 12:00A. Kurtenko1.8313119572S. Solomko1.831181111113WSep 5 · 18:00A. Kurtenko1.8311119113V. Smyk1.83471141
E. Populovskyi10
LSep 13 · 11:20E. Populovskyi3.5051070S. Solomko1.281112113WSep 13 · 09:20O. Tymofeev2.25118115102E. Populovskyi1.57811611123WSep 13 · 07:20O. Osadchyi1.33107111152E. Populovskyi3.25121134113WSep 13 · 06:20A. Martyniuk1.40114861E. Populovskyi2.7561111113WSep 12 · 19:00O. Tymofeev2.0081050E. Populovskyi1.731112113LSep 12 · 17:30E. Populovskyi3.254540S. Solomko1.33111183LSep 12 · 13:30A. Kurtenko1.8071311113E. Populovskyi1.911111851WSep 12 · 12:30V. Smyk1.911111119102E. Populovskyi1.80138811123WSep 11 · 18:30O. Leonenko2.00116971E. Populovskyi1.7391111113LSep 11 · 17:30S. Solomko1.331211113E. Populovskyi3.2510440
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