TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13117877
Played Sep 12Finished
Andrii Kurtenko
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 0
Set by set
1412109––––––
Vasiliy Smyk
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:23 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAndrii Kurtenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAndrii Kurtenko above · Vasiliy Smyk below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 10-9
Point 45 set 2, 10-9 — our read held Andrii Kurtenko at 54.0%
45 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Kurtenko 12–8 Vasiliy Smyk Vasiliy Smyk has won 8 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 24:23What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Smyk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-8 in 20
Kurtenko
Correct
gap of 4 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kurtenko 1427 vs Smyk 1380
Kurtenko
Correct
both rated, 47 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kurtenko 40% vs Smyk 20%
Kurtenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kurtenko 30% vs Smyk 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kurtenko -2 · Smyk -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kurtenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Smyk form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKurtenko 1.83 / Smyk 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kurtenko)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13117877
Kurtenko1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Smyk1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKurtenko7wins
AwaySmyk3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKurtenko leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKurtenko66.7%4 of 6
AwaySmyk25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kurtenko6Smyk4n = 10Kurtenko took 6 of 10
S2Kurtenko6Smyk4n = 10Kurtenko took 6 of 10
S3Kurtenko5Smyk5n = 10split evenly
S4Kurtenko4Smyk6n = 10Smyk took 6 of 10
S5Kurtenko4Smyk1n = 5Kurtenko took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKurtenkoSmykK − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.640.8+1.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKurtenkoSmykBasisWin rate · lifetime338 / 646 vs 274 / 65052.3%42.2%338 / 646 vs 274 / 650Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.036.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KurtenkoKurtenko 1.83/Smyk 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kurtenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–0
Kurtenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 5 · 18:00A. Kurtenko4211119113V. Smyk26471141
WAug 23 · 06:50A. Kurtenko50118119113V. Smyk4071161152
WAug 22 · 17:00A. Kurtenko571191115113V. Smyk5391171792
LAug 19 · 16:00A. Kurtenko3611123552V. Smyk463101111113
WJul 20 · 08:20A. Kurtenko43411116113V. Smyk4511591192
WJul 19 · 15:30A. Kurtenko46331118113V. Smyk51111161672
LMay 17 · 18:20A. Kurtenko4112116121V. Smyk4814911143
WApr 7 · 11:40A. Kurtenko4411129123V. Smyk3981011101
WMar 7 · 16:50A. Kurtenko4291111113V. Smyk22114251
LAug 4 · 10:50A. Kurtenko25114551V. Smyk3851111113
A. Kurtenko10
LSep 12 · 16:30A. Kurtenko1.6791111892O. Leonenko2.10118611113LSep 12 · 15:00A. Kurtenko2.10330O. Tymofeev1.6711112WSep 12 · 13:30A. Kurtenko1.8071311113E. Populovskyi1.911111851LSep 12 · 12:00A. Kurtenko1.8313119572S. Solomko1.831181111113WSep 5 · 18:00A. Kurtenko1.8311119113V. Smyk1.83471141WSep 5 · 16:30A. Kurtenko1.571171163D. Patalakha2.25911621LSep 5 · 15:00A. Kurtenko2.10851251O. Tymofeev1.6711111073LSep 5 · 13:30A. Kurtenko1.831112651S. Solomko1.83131011113LSep 5 · 12:00A. Kurtenko3.5011381272F. Voinarovskyi1.286111110113LSep 3 · 11:30A. Kurtenko1.807111131S. Solomko1.9111110153
V. Smyk10
LSep 12 · 17:00V. Smyk2.5087100O. Tymofeev1.501111123LSep 12 · 16:00V. Smyk2.3810570S. Solomko1.531211113WSep 12 · 14:30V. Smyk2.2511311343O. Leonenko1.5791161112LSep 12 · 12:30V. Smyk1.911111119102E. Populovskyi1.80138811123LSep 11 · 18:00A. Kovalenko2.0031111113V. Smyk1.73119991LSep 11 · 17:00V. Smyk2.50111231082O. Tymofeev1.509101112113LSep 11 · 16:00V. Smyk1.917750E. Populovskyi1.801111113WSep 11 · 14:30V. Smyk2.381181133O. Leonenko1.53611801LSep 11 · 12:30V. Smyk2.5012831172S. Solomko1.501011117113LSep 5 · 18:00A. Kurtenko1.8311119113V. Smyk1.83471141
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