TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13130844
Played Sep 15Finished
Oleksandr Osadchyi
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1161210119––––
Andrii Kurtenko
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:02 and never touched — 55.3% is still 55.3%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Osadchyi to win
55.3%
55.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Osadchyi above · Andrii Kurtenko below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 59 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Oleksandr Osadchyi at 55.3%
59 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Osadchyi 46–33 Andrii Kurtenko Andrii Kurtenko has won 33 of their 79 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:02What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Osadchyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
46-33 in 79
Osadchyi
Correct
gap of 13 in 79, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Osadchyi 1516 vs Kurtenko 1434
Osadchyi
Correct
both rated, 83 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Osadchyi 20% vs Kurtenko 40%
Kurtenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Osadchyi 40% vs Kurtenko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Osadchyi +1 · Kurtenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Osadchyi) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Osadchyi form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOsadchyi 1.73 / Kurtenko 2.00
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Osadchyi)+3.6pp
Setka Cup · #13130844
Osadchyi1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite70% won 103 of 147
Up 2–0, closes it96% 53 of 55
Up 1–0, closes it83% 73 of 88
Kurtenko2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 49 of 124
Down 0–1, comes back16% 10 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOsadchyi6wins
AwayKurtenko4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderOsadchyi leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOsadchyi71.4%5 of 7
AwayKurtenko66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Osadchyi7Kurtenko3n = 10Osadchyi took 7 of 10
S2Osadchyi4Kurtenko6n = 10Kurtenko took 6 of 10
S3Osadchyi7Kurtenko3n = 10Osadchyi took 7 of 10
S4Osadchyi3Kurtenko6n = 9Kurtenko took 6 of 9
S5Osadchyi2Kurtenko1n = 3Osadchyi took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricOsadchyiKurtenkoO − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.938.7+2.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOsadchyiKurtenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime440 / 857 vs 340 / 65251.3%52.2%440 / 857 vs 340 / 652Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.336.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OsadchyiOsadchyi 1.73/Kurtenko 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.3%
Osadchyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Osadchyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 15 · 06:35O. Osadchyi341112113A. Kurtenko2561090
LSep 13 · 08:50O. Osadchyi28114671A. Kurtenko3961111113
WSep 3 · 07:30O. Osadchyi4181111113A. Kurtenko27114571
WSep 2 · 11:05O. Osadchyi4111711123A. Kurtenko326115101
WAug 16 · 12:50O. Osadchyi4411616113A. Kurtenko407111481
LAug 9 · 11:23O. Osadchyi57111315992A. Kurtenko577151311113
WAug 9 · 06:50O. Osadchyi48111169113A. Kurtenko4479111162
LJul 16 · 05:50O. Osadchyi35961191A. Kurtenko4211119113
LJul 15 · 09:05O. Osadchyi371011791A. Kurtenko4012611113
WJul 12 · 14:00O. Osadchyi44113118113A. Kurtenko4171191132
O. Osadchyi10
WSep 15 · 05:05O. Osadchyi1.401111113E. Populovskyi2.759870LSep 13 · 11:50O. Osadchyi3.756990A. Martyniuk1.251111113LSep 13 · 10:20O. Osadchyi1.67115591O. Tymofeev2.1091111113LSep 13 · 08:50O. Osadchyi1.61114671A. Kurtenko2.2061111113LSep 13 · 07:20O. Osadchyi1.33107111152E. Populovskyi3.25121134113WSep 13 · 05:50O. Osadchyi2.1011711113S. Solomko1.67511881WSep 10 · 12:05V. Vietrov1.676430O. Osadchyi2.101111113LSep 10 · 10:35O. Osadchyi4.00591161A. Troyan1.2211119113WSep 10 · 08:35D. Khairov1.808670O. Osadchyi1.911111113LSep 10 · 06:35O. Volynets2.25111163113O. Osadchyi1.5754111192
A. Kurtenko10
WSep 15 · 05:35S. Skhabitskiy2.63611111162A. Kurtenko1.44111374113LSep 13 · 12:50A. Kurtenko1.73101090E. Populovskyi2.001212113LSep 13 · 10:50A. Martyniuk1.33111179123A. Kurtenko3.25581111102WSep 13 · 08:50O. Osadchyi1.61114671A. Kurtenko2.2061111113LSep 13 · 07:50A. Kurtenko1.831194111S. Solomko1.8341111133LSep 13 · 06:50O. Tymofeev1.5751111113A. Kurtenko2.25119921WSep 12 · 18:00A. Kurtenko1.8314102V. Smyk1.831290LSep 12 · 16:30A. Kurtenko1.6791111892O. Leonenko2.10118611113LSep 12 · 15:00A. Kurtenko2.10330O. Tymofeev1.6711112WSep 12 · 13:30A. Kurtenko1.8071311113E. Populovskyi1.911111851
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