TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13131222
Played Sep 15Finished
Anatolii Kovalenko
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711117911211––
Andrii Kurtenko
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:20 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAnatolii Kovalenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAnatolii Kovalenko above · Andrii Kurtenko below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 2-11
Point 69 set 4, 2-11 — our read held Anatolii Kovalenko at 54.0%
69 points played in total.
H2H Anatolii Kovalenko 12–5 Andrii Kurtenko Andrii Kurtenko has won 5 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:20What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Kurtenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-5 in 17
Kovalenko
Wrong
gap of 7 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalenko 1429 vs Kurtenko 1434
Kurtenko
Correct
both rated, 5 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalenko 60% vs Kurtenko 40%
Kovalenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalenko 50% vs Kurtenko 30%
Kovalenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalenko +1 · Kurtenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kovalenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kurtenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalenko 1.83 / Kurtenko 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kovalenko)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13131222
Kovalenko1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Kurtenko1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovalenko6wins
AwayKurtenko4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderKovalenko leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalenko100%4 of 4
AwayKurtenko66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalenko4Kurtenko6n = 10Kurtenko took 6 of 10
S2Kovalenko4Kurtenko6n = 10Kurtenko took 6 of 10
S3Kovalenko7Kurtenko3n = 10Kovalenko took 7 of 10
S4Kovalenko3Kurtenko2n = 5Kovalenko took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovalenkoKurtenkoKovalenko − KurtenkoBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.233.6+0.6per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalenkoKurtenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime278 / 523 vs 340 / 65153.2%52.2%278 / 523 vs 340 / 651Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.736.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalenkoKovalenko 1.83/Kurtenko 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kovalenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kurtenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 16 · 11:20A. Kovalenko1734100A. Kurtenko341111123
WAug 10 · 10:20A. Kovalenko3941113113A. Kurtenko381171191
WJul 20 · 10:50A. Kovalenko4313811113A. Kurtenko381111881
WJul 13 · 08:20A. Kovalenko43111011113A. Kurtenko33712681
LJul 8 · 07:05A. Kovalenko33871171A. Kurtenko4211119113
LJul 6 · 09:20A. Kovalenko27611100A. Kurtenko361113123
LJul 2 · 07:20A. Kovalenko2999110A. Kurtenko351111133
WJul 1 · 19:00A. Kovalenko44611115113A. Kurtenko4011581152
WMay 18 · 06:05A. Kovalenko331111113A. Kurtenko198740
WApr 7 · 17:40A. Kovalenko341112113A. Kurtenko2161050
A. Kovalenko10
LSep 15 · 11:35A. Kovalenko1.831011881E. Populovskyi1.8312911113LSep 15 · 09:35O. Osadchyi1.531112113A. Kovalenko2.3891080WSep 15 · 07:35S. Skhabitskiy2.25115961A. Kovalenko1.5771111113LSep 15 · 06:05A. Kovalenko2.634880A. Martyniuk1.441111113WSep 11 · 18:00A. Kovalenko2.0031111113V. Smyk1.73119991WSep 11 · 16:30A. Kovalenko2.20911119143O. Leonenko1.61116911122LSep 11 · 15:00A. Kovalenko2.635911101O. Tymofeev1.4411119123LSep 11 · 13:30A. Kovalenko2.106680S. Solomko1.671111113WSep 11 · 12:00A. Kovalenko1.831113411113E. Populovskyi1.8321511232LSep 9 · 19:00O. Tymofeev1.5311611113A. Kovalenko2.38511521
A. Kurtenko10
LSep 15 · 12:05A. Martyniuk1.361111173A. Kurtenko3.0069150WSep 15 · 10:35A. Kurtenko1.91111011123E. Populovskyi1.806127101LSep 15 · 06:35O. Osadchyi1.731112113A. Kurtenko2.0061090WSep 15 · 05:35S. Skhabitskiy2.63611111162A. Kurtenko1.44111374113LSep 13 · 12:50A. Kurtenko1.73101090E. Populovskyi2.001212113LSep 13 · 10:50A. Martyniuk1.33111179123A. Kurtenko3.25581111102WSep 13 · 08:50O. Osadchyi1.61114671A. Kurtenko2.2061111113LSep 13 · 07:50A. Kurtenko1.831194111S. Solomko1.8341111133LSep 13 · 06:50O. Tymofeev1.5751111113A. Kurtenko2.25119921WSep 12 · 18:00A. Kurtenko1.8314102V. Smyk1.831290
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