TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13131166
Played Sep 15Finished
Anatolii Kovalenko
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1012119811811––
Eduard Populovskyi
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:09 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeEduard Populovskyi to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAnatolii Kovalenko above · Eduard Populovskyi below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 80 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Eduard Populovskyi at 54.0%
80 points played in total.
H2H Anatolii Kovalenko 18–18 Eduard Populovskyi Dead even across their 36 meetings.
Last 10 · 6–4Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:09What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Populovskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-18 in 36
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalenko 1407 vs Populovskyi 1482
Populovskyi
Correct
both rated, 75 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalenko 40% vs Populovskyi 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalenko 40% vs Populovskyi 60%
Populovskyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalenko -2 · Populovskyi -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Populovskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Populovskyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalenko 1.83 / Populovskyi 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Populovskyi)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13131166
Kovalenko1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
Populovskyi1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovalenko6wins
AwayPopulovskyi4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKovalenko leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalenko83.3%5 of 6
AwayPopulovskyi75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalenko6Populovskyi4n = 10Kovalenko took 6 of 10
S2Kovalenko5Populovskyi5n = 10split evenly
S3Kovalenko7Populovskyi3n = 10Kovalenko took 7 of 10
S4Kovalenko4Populovskyi2n = 6Kovalenko took 4 of 6
S5Kovalenko2Populovskyi3n = 5Populovskyi took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovalenkoPopulovskyiK − PBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.636.1+4.5per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalenkoPopulovskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime278 / 525 vs 343 / 69753%49.2%278 / 525 vs 343 / 697Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.736.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PopulovskyiKovalenko 1.83/Populovskyi 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Populovskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Populovskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 12:00A. Kovalenko501113411113E. Populovskyi3321511232
LSep 6 · 10:50A. Kovalenko47114119122E. Populovskyi48811411143
WSep 4 · 07:05A. Kovalenko4291111113E. Populovskyi32117771
LAug 31 · 11:35A. Kovalenko49101191182E. Populovskyi49129116113
WAug 17 · 10:35A. Kovalenko501111116113E. Populovskyi4361341192
WAug 16 · 05:50A. Kovalenko341112113E. Populovskyi2571080
LAug 10 · 09:20A. Kovalenko42731111102E. Populovskyi45111174123
WAug 7 · 05:00A. Kovalenko351211123E. Populovskyi28108100
LAug 6 · 10:50A. Kovalenko218940E. Populovskyi331111113
WAug 1 · 15:00A. Kovalenko361411113E. Populovskyi2512850
A. Kovalenko10
LSep 15 · 09:35O. Osadchyi1.531112113A. Kovalenko2.3891080LSep 15 · 08:35A. Kovalenko1.83711921A. Kurtenko1.8311711113WSep 15 · 07:35S. Skhabitskiy2.25115961A. Kovalenko1.5771111113LSep 15 · 06:05A. Kovalenko2.634880A. Martyniuk1.441111113WSep 11 · 18:00A. Kovalenko2.0031111113V. Smyk1.73119991WSep 11 · 16:30A. Kovalenko2.20911119143O. Leonenko1.61116911122LSep 11 · 15:00A. Kovalenko2.635911101O. Tymofeev1.4411119123LSep 11 · 13:30A. Kovalenko2.106680S. Solomko1.671111113WSep 11 · 12:00A. Kovalenko1.831113411113E. Populovskyi1.8321511232LSep 9 · 19:00O. Tymofeev1.5311611113A. Kovalenko2.38511521
E. Populovskyi10
LSep 15 · 10:35A. Kurtenko1.91111011123E. Populovskyi1.806127101WSep 15 · 09:05S. Skhabitskiy2.5011128692E. Populovskyi1.503101111113LSep 15 · 07:05A. Martyniuk1.4411119113E. Populovskyi2.63991171LSep 15 · 05:05O. Osadchyi1.401111113E. Populovskyi2.759870WSep 13 · 12:50A. Kurtenko1.73101090E. Populovskyi2.001212113LSep 13 · 11:20E. Populovskyi3.5051070S. Solomko1.281112113WSep 13 · 09:20O. Tymofeev2.25118115102E. Populovskyi1.57811611123WSep 13 · 07:20O. Osadchyi1.33107111152E. Populovskyi3.25121134113WSep 13 · 06:20A. Martyniuk1.40114861E. Populovskyi2.7561111113LSep 11 · 12:00A. Kovalenko1.831113411113E. Populovskyi1.8321511232
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.