TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13129271
Played Sep 14Finished
Tomas Bartik
Home
1.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
81111811710121012
Tomas Trnka
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:21 and never touched — 70.7% is still 70.7%
Graded at full timeTomas Bartik to win
70.7%
70.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Bartik above · Tomas Trnka below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 100 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Tomas Bartik at 70.7%
100 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Bartik 10–5 Tomas Trnka Tomas Trnka has won 5 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:21What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Bartik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-5 in 15
Bartik
Wrong
gap of 5 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bartik 1665 vs Trnka 1603
Bartik
Wrong
both rated, 61 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bartik 40% vs Trnka 20%
Bartik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bartik 40% vs Trnka 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Bartik -1 · Trnka -3
Trnka
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Bartik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Trnka form (20%) is below what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBartik 1.40 / Trnka 2.75
Signal prob.71% / 29%
Edge (Bartik)+4.4pp
TT Cup · #13129271
Bartik1.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite55% won 76 of 139
Up 2–0, closes it98% 40 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it76% 59 of 78
Trnka2.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 20 of 55
Down 0–1, comes back19% 6 of 32
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBartik9wins
AwayTrnka1wins
5 of 10 to a deciderBartik leads 9–1, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBartik87.5%7 of 8
AwayTrnkan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bartik8Trnka2n = 10Bartik took 8 of 10
S2Bartik6Trnka4n = 10Bartik took 6 of 10
S3Bartik4Trnka6n = 10Trnka took 6 of 10
S4Bartik5Trnka4n = 9Bartik took 5 of 9
S5Bartik5Trnka0n = 5Bartik took 5 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBartikTrnkaB − TBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match42.937.9+5.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBartikTrnkaBasisWin rate · lifetime182 / 309 vs 139 / 26558.9%52.5%182 / 309 vs 139 / 265Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.136.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BartikBartik 1.40/Trnka 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
70.7%
Bartik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Trnka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 15:35T. Bartik3911116113T. Trnka35791181
WAug 22 · 18:05T. Bartik47111177113T. Trnka4049111152
WAug 22 · 14:05T. Bartik50119118113T. Trnka4371161182
WAug 18 · 18:05T. Bartik45111310113T. Trnka354111281
WJul 27 · 13:40T. Bartik40411212113T. Trnka45116111072
LJul 27 · 11:35T. Bartik361196101T. Trnka4281111123
WMay 13 · 18:05T. Bartik49111188113T. Trnka3768111112
WApr 14 · 15:35T. Bartik351111133T. Trnka2788110
WMar 22 · 11:05T. Bartik491051112113T. Trnka43121131072
WMar 21 · 20:35T. Bartik3911611113T. Trnka32811581
T. Bartik10
LSep 6 · 17:50M. Mastera2.441111113T. Bartik1.457730WSep 6 · 16:05F. Karel1.91911761T. Bartik1.8011611113WSep 6 · 15:35T. Trnka2.63791181T. Bartik1.4411116113LSep 6 · 14:35T. Bartik1.57116111162M. Mastera2.25911138113LSep 2 · 13:08T. Bartik1.53117111182J. Ruzicka2.38611138113LSep 2 · 12:05F. Karel1.9113911113T. Bartik1.801111781WSep 2 · 11:35J. Ruzicka2.2046100T. Bartik1.611111123LSep 2 · 10:35T. Bartik1.809112111D. Lengal1.9111711133WAug 22 · 21:34F. Karel1.807101121T. Bartik1.9111127113LAug 22 · 20:05T. Bartik1.808670F. Karel1.911111113
T. Trnka10
LSep 6 · 17:18T. Trnka2.256911121F. Karel1.5711118143LSep 6 · 16:35M. Mastera1.5041213113T. Trnka2.5011101161LSep 6 · 15:35T. Trnka2.63791181T. Bartik1.4411116113WSep 6 · 14:05F. Karel1.44791191T. Trnka2.6311114113LSep 5 · 09:10M. Kucera1.401111113T. Trnka2.758770LSep 5 · 08:35J. Joksch1.611111113T. Trnka2.208970LSep 5 · 07:35T. Trnka2.205960M. Mastera1.611111113LSep 5 · 06:05M. Kucera1.4091111113T. Trnka2.75119781WSep 3 · 17:03T. Trnka2.00211114113J. Ruzicka1.7311971162WSep 3 · 16:05T. Beran2.206101111102T. Trnka1.61111299123
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