TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13128736
Played Sep 14Finished
Kamil Kostyk
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
13111179111412––
Adam Linek
Away
2.45
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:21 and never touched — 69.6% is still 69.6%
Graded at full timeAdam Linek to win
69.6%
69.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKamil Kostyk above · Adam Linek below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 14-12
Point 88 set 4, 14-12 — our read held Adam Linek at 69.6%
88 points played in total.
H2H Kamil Kostyk 3–1 Adam Linek Adam Linek has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Kostyk beat Linek 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:21What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (63%)
Kostyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Kostyk
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kostyk 1432 vs Linek 1492
Linek
Wrong
both rated, 59 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kostyk 20% vs Linek 80%
Linek
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kostyk 20% vs Linek 80%
Linek
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kostyk +1 · Linek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Kostyk) · live re-read · sealed at 30% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Linek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (41%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKostyk 1.44 / Linek 2.45
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Kostyk)-2.8pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13128736
Kostyk1.44
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 44 of 70
Up 2–0, closes it95% 20 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it76% 34 of 45
Linek2.45
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog41% won 146 of 356
Down 0–1, comes back26% 52 of 199
Down 0–2, comes back5% 5 of 94
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeKostyk3wins
AwayLinek1wins
1 of 4 to a deciderKostyk leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kostyk2Linek2n = 4split evenly
S2Kostyk4Linek0n = 4Kostyk took 4 of 4
S3Kostyk1Linek3n = 4Linek took 3 of 4
S4Kostyk2Linek1n = 3Kostyk took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricKostykLinekK − LBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match42.238.2+4.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKostykLinekBasisWin rate · lifetime221 / 443 vs 786 / 168349.9%46.7%221 / 443 vs 786 / 1683Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KostykKostyk 1.44/Linek 2.45
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.2%
Kostyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kostyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 14 · 21:00K. Kostyk4713119143A. Linek4111711121
WSep 14 · 20:05K. Kostyk49711911113A. Linek4211611772
WSep 25 · 14:40K. Kostyk331111113A. Linek247890
LSep 25 · 06:30K. Kostyk409117131A. Linek4611911153
K. Kostyk10
WSep 14 · 20:05A. Linek2.2511611772K. Kostyk1.57711911113LSep 14 · 19:15K. Staszczyk1.6151111113K. Kostyk2.20119821LSep 14 · 17:20M. Kolek1.57811118113K. Kostyk2.2511761162LSep 14 · 16:30K. Rudomina1.91111111113K. Kostyk1.80136951LSep 14 · 15:00J. Witkowski1.61511913113K. Kostyk2.20118111172LSep 8 · 23:20K. Kapik1.441111113K. Kostyk2.636370LSep 8 · 22:35K. Staszczyk1.539111511113K. Kostyk2.3811517482LSep 8 · 22:10K. Kostyk2.0081111482L. Pietraszko1.73119911113LSep 8 · 21:00M. Rutkowski1.5011118113K. Kostyk2.50761111WSep 8 · 20:30K. Kostyk2.631111113K. Kapik1.448870
A. Linek10
LSep 14 · 20:05A. Linek2.2511611772K. Kostyk1.57711911113WSep 14 · 18:30M. Kolek1.6188111192A. Linek2.20111153113WSep 14 · 17:40J. Witkowski1.537111081A. Linek2.3811812113WSep 14 · 16:55A. Linek3.00711115113K. Staszczyk1.3611691162WSep 14 · 15:45A. Linek1.731151110123K. Rudomina2.00911912102LSep 14 · 24:35A. Linek1.884990K. Rudomina1.821111113WSep 13 · 23:45R. Stapor1.9048111162A. Linek1.75111159113WSep 13 · 22:35A. Linek1.3011118123K. Marchlewski3.108911101WSep 13 · 21:55D. Kotwica2.5591111292A. Linek1.42118911113WSep 11 · 08:05D. Kosmal1.4013580A. Linek2.651511113
Upcoming Matches
K. Kostyk
Sep 14 · 22:55K. Kostyk1.44J. Lamperski2.63—Sep 14 · 23:45K. Kostyk2.25D. Solilo1.57—Sep 15 · 24:10K. Kostyk2.10K. Staszczyk1.67—Sep 15 · 15:00K. Kostyk—A. Linek——Sep 15 · 16:05K. Kostyk—J. Lamperski——Sep 15 · 17:40K. Kostyk—B. Kwodawski——Sep 15 · 18:50K. Kostyk—J. Witkowski——Sep 15 · 20:30K. Kostyk—L. Pietraszko——Sep 15 · 21:00K. Kostyk—A. Linek——Sep 15 · 22:10K. Kostyk—D. Solilo——
A. Linek
Sep 14 · 22:10A. Linek1.30J. Lamperski3.40—Sep 14 · 22:35A. Linek2.25D. Solilo1.57—Sep 14 · 23:20A. Linek2.75K. Staszczyk1.40—Sep 15 · 15:00A. Linek—K. Kostyk——Sep 15 · 16:30A. Linek—J. Witkowski——Sep 15 · 17:20A. Linek—J. Lamperski——Sep 15 · 19:15A. Linek—L. Pietraszko——Sep 15 · 20:05A. Linek—B. Kwodawski——Sep 15 · 21:00A. Linek—K. Kostyk——Sep 15 · 22:55A. Linek—D. Solilo——
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