TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13125522
Played Sep 14Finished
Konrad Staszczyk
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
511119118112––
Kamil Kostyk
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 7Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:54 and never touched — 61.8% is still 61.8%
Graded at full timeKonrad Staszczyk to win
61.8%
61.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKonrad Staszczyk above · Kamil Kostyk below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-2
Point 68 set 4, 11-2 — our read held Konrad Staszczyk at 61.8%
68 points played in total.
H2H Konrad Staszczyk 8–8 Kamil Kostyk Dead even across their 16 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:54What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Staszczyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-8 in 16
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Staszczyk 1648 vs Kostyk 1388
Staszczyk
Correct
both rated, 260 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Staszczyk 60% vs Kostyk 0%
Staszczyk
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Staszczyk 60% vs Kostyk 10%
Staszczyk
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Staszczyk +1 · Kostyk -5
Kostyk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Staszczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kostyk form (0%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStaszczyk 1.61 / Kostyk 2.20
Signal prob.61% / 40%
Edge (Staszczyk)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13125522
Staszczyk1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
56%takes the first set · 5 of 9
As favourite65% won 153 of 237
Up 2–0, closes it88% 60 of 68
Up 1–0, closes it83% 109 of 131
Kostyk2.20
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 7
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 46 of 133
Down 0–1, comes back19% 15 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStaszczyk5wins
AwayKostyk5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStaszczyk75%3 of 4
AwayKostyk66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Staszczyk4Kostyk6n = 10Kostyk took 6 of 10
S2Staszczyk7Kostyk3n = 10Staszczyk took 7 of 10
S3Staszczyk7Kostyk3n = 10Staszczyk took 7 of 10
S4Staszczyk1Kostyk6n = 7Kostyk took 6 of 7
S5Staszczyk3Kostyk3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStaszczykKostykS − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.340.7−0.4per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStaszczykKostykBasisWin rate · lifetime194 / 343 vs 219 / 44056.6%49.8%194 / 343 vs 219 / 440Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StaszczykStaszczyk 1.61/Kostyk 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.5%
Staszczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Staszczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 8 · 22:35K. Staszczyk579111511113K. Kostyk4511517482
WSep 7 · 21:00K. Staszczyk551161116113K. Kostyk5071181862
LSep 7 · 15:00K. Staszczyk2054110K. Kostyk351111133
WJul 12 · 16:55K. Staszczyk331111113K. Kostyk227960
LJul 12 · 24:10K. Staszczyk44111138112K. Kostyk44451111133
WJul 11 · 21:45K. Staszczyk331111113K. Kostyk237790
LJun 14 · 10:05K. Staszczyk28691121K. Kostyk4211119113
LJun 14 · 06:15K. Staszczyk48911117102K. Kostyk51119811123
LJun 14 · 03:45K. Staszczyk3841211832K. Kostyk501110711113
WJun 13 · 09:00K. Staszczyk471011114113K. Kostyk4512681182
K. Staszczyk10
WSep 14 · 18:05K. Rudomina2.75119871K. Staszczyk1.4061111113LSep 14 · 16:55A. Linek3.00711115113K. Staszczyk1.3611691162LSep 14 · 15:25M. Kolek2.103K. Staszczyk1.670WSep 13 · 19:40M. Kolek2.20611611102K. Staszczyk1.61115114123WSep 13 · 18:50F. Mlynarski1.5091070K. Staszczyk2.501112113LSep 13 · 18:05K. Staszczyk1.837380D. Jadam1.831111113LSep 13 · 16:30K. Staszczyk1.53119113122G. Kesik2.38711411143WSep 13 · 15:45L. Pietraszko2.38119971K. Staszczyk1.5381111113WSep 12 · 01:30K. Staszczyk1.73119119123M. Marchlewski2.00911511102WSep 12 · 24:45J. Mitas2.00116661K. Staszczyk1.7331111113
K. Kostyk10
LSep 14 · 17:20M. Kolek1.57811118113K. Kostyk2.2511761162LSep 14 · 16:30K. Rudomina1.91111111113K. Kostyk1.80136951LSep 14 · 15:00J. Witkowski1.61511913113K. Kostyk2.20118111172LSep 8 · 23:20K. Kapik1.441111113K. Kostyk2.636370LSep 8 · 22:35K. Staszczyk1.539111511113K. Kostyk2.3811517482LSep 8 · 22:10K. Kostyk2.0081111482L. Pietraszko1.73119911113LSep 8 · 21:00M. Rutkowski1.5011118113K. Kostyk2.50761111WSep 8 · 20:30K. Kostyk2.631111113K. Kapik1.448870LSep 8 · 18:50K. Kostyk3.751111361K. Glazowski1.2513611113LSep 8 · 17:40K. Kostyk2.2081313852L. Pietraszko1.6111111111113
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