TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13125424
Played Sep 14Finished
Maciej Kolek
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
––––––––––
Konrad Staszczyk
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:38 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMaciej Kolek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
H2H Maciej Kolek 3–3 Konrad Staszczyk Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:38What took a side0 for · 2 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Staszczyk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolek 1671 vs Staszczyk 1687
Staszczyk
Wrong
both rated, 16 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolek 60% vs Staszczyk 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolek 60% vs Staszczyk 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolek -1 · Staszczyk +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Staszczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolek 2.10 / Staszczyk 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Staszczyk)+0.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13125424
Kolek2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 176 of 452
Down 0–1, comes back21% 56 of 268
Down 0–2, comes back2% 3 of 123
Staszczyk1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite65% won 153 of 237
Up 2–0, closes it88% 60 of 68
Up 1–0, closes it83% 109 of 131
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeKolek3wins
AwayStaszczyk3wins
5 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 5 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolek100%3 of 3
AwayStaszczyk100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolek3Staszczyk3n = 6split evenly
S2Kolek2Staszczyk4n = 6Staszczyk took 4 of 6
S3Kolek3Staszczyk3n = 6split evenly
S4Kolek3Staszczyk3n = 6split evenly
S5Kolek3Staszczyk2n = 5Kolek took 3 of 5
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home350%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricKolekStaszczykK − SBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match44.842.5+2.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolekStaszczykBasisWin rate · lifetime696 / 1400 vs 193 / 34049.7%56.8%696 / 1400 vs 193 / 340Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.938.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StaszczykKolek 2.10/Staszczyk 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.8%
Staszczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kolek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 13 · 19:40M. Kolek44611611102K. Staszczyk43115114123
WSep 11 · 13:50M. Kolek46116711113K. Staszczyk3441111442
WJun 28 · 18:30M. Kolek52119911123K. Staszczyk46711117102
LMay 31 · 13:00M. Kolek4871112992K. Staszczyk521191011113
WMay 31 · 04:10M. Kolek46114119113K. Staszczyk3871151142
LMay 21 · 16:55M. Kolek33691171K. Staszczyk4211119113
M. Kolek10
WSep 14 · 17:20M. Kolek1.57811118113K. Kostyk2.2511761162WSep 14 · 16:05J. Witkowski1.8065130M. Kolek1.911111153LSep 13 · 19:40M. Kolek2.20611611102K. Staszczyk1.61115114123WSep 13 · 18:30M. Kolek1.911111113L. Pietraszko1.809280WSep 13 · 17:20M. Kolek1.501011118153G. Kesik2.50124211132LSep 13 · 16:05F. Mlynarski1.4451111113M. Kolek2.63118411WSep 13 · 15:25M. Kolek2.2511914113D. Jadam1.574111291WSep 13 · 14:35T. Piotrowski3.055580M. Kolek1.291111113WSep 13 · 13:25M. Kolek1.241191313133M. Piecowski3.404111115112LSep 13 · 12:10D. Solilo1.8511118113M. Kolek1.85371181
K. Staszczyk10
WSep 14 · 18:05K. Rudomina2.75119871K. Staszczyk1.4061111113LSep 14 · 16:55A. Linek3.00711115113K. Staszczyk1.3611691162WSep 13 · 19:40M. Kolek2.20611611102K. Staszczyk1.61115114123WSep 13 · 18:50F. Mlynarski1.5091070K. Staszczyk2.501112113LSep 13 · 18:05K. Staszczyk1.837380D. Jadam1.831111113LSep 13 · 16:30K. Staszczyk1.53119113122G. Kesik2.38711411143WSep 13 · 15:45L. Pietraszko2.38119971K. Staszczyk1.5381111113WSep 12 · 01:30K. Staszczyk1.73119119123M. Marchlewski2.00911511102WSep 12 · 24:45J. Mitas2.00116661K. Staszczyk1.7331111113WSep 11 · 23:35K. Staszczyk2.1011111113T. Filbrandt1.67881181
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